NSDL shares down 40% in 9 months; get up to 30% target price cuts - Roadmap for investors

NSDL share price: Once a retail favourite, shares of National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) have been on a free-fall lately as the stock has tanked as much as 40 per cent from its post-listing high, hit 9 months back. Brokerage firms, tracking the stock, too are not much positive on the stock despite having a duopoly in the depository business.

Shares of NSDL were seen at Rs 870 on Friday commanding a market capitalization of little more than 17,000 crore. However, the stock was trading around sub-850 mark in the recent weeks. Interestingly, the stock tested its lows of Rs 788 in March 2026, slipping below its IPO price. The stock is up nearly 10 per cent from its recent lows.
 

NSDL IPO

Shares of NSDL were listed at the bourses in August 2025, when the company raised a total of Rs 4,011 crore via IPO, selling its shares for Rs 800 apeice with a lot size of 18 equity shares. Post listing, the stock soared nearly 80 per cent in a week to hit an all time high of Rs 1,425 on August 11. However, the stock has cracked almost 40 per cent from its post listing peak.
 

NSDL Q4 results

NSDL announce its Q4 results on April 30, 2026 when the company announced a 8.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) jump in the net profit at Rs 90.3 crore, while its revenue from operations increased soared 26 per cent YoY to Rs 458.25 crore for the quarter. It also announced a final dividend of Rs 4 per share.
 

NSDL target price

NSDL provides depository services to investors, issuers, depository participants, financial institutions, stockbrokers, custodians, clearing corporations and other market intermediaries through an integrated platform. NSDL is a play on broader Indian capital markets, with a mix of recurring and transaction revenue split 50/50 as of FY26, said ICICI Securities.

The prospect remains one of long-term, relatively safe compounding potential with the optionality for market share gains, bolstered by a strong new management team and a fresh focus on enhancing digital capabilities. However, market momentum—both positive and negative—presents potential upside and downside risks," it added and cut its target price by 30 per cent to Rs 840 from Rs 1,170 earlier.

Revenue growth was more than offset by a significant jump in other expenses and contribution to IPF by 52 per cent and 23 per cent QoQ respectively. With Rs 1.06bn capitalized in FY26, management has characterized FY26 as the peak of the technology and human capital investment cycle, said JM Financial,  which revised its earnings downwards driven by subdued market sentiment given geo-political tension,

A plateau in spend thereafter points to meaningful operating margin expansion as the modernized infrastructure is leveraged. The market share was lower QoQ driven by the occurrence of a specific large IPO during the quarter, which tended to benefit competitors more, and the practice of large bank-based DPs closing inoperative or dormant accounts," it added with an 'add' rating and a target price of Rs 1,0005 apiece.

With the share of recurring fees rising to 50.4 per cent of FY26 depository income, imparting greater stability to the annuity-led business model, and increasing contribution from banking services, alongside controlled cost growth, NSDL is well positioned to benefit from operating leverage, supporting improvement in profitability, said Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

"Steady momentum in demat account additions and successful onboarding of new fintech partners remain key monitorables for future growth. We have raised our earnings estimates for FY27/FY28 by 4 per cent/3 per cent to factor in higher banking revenue and lower cost growth," it said with a 'neutral' rating and a target price of Rs 1,000.