Should you 'Buy' Maruti Suzuki shares post Q4 results? Check target price, recommendation rationale

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd (MSIL) remains on brokerages' radar following its Q4 FY26 performance, with analysts largely maintaining a positive stance on the country's largest carmaker even amid some challenges.

Axis Direct said MSIL's domestic demand stayed resilient during the quarter, aided by a GST reduction-led recovery in the second half of the fiscal. This helped the company clock record total sales of 24,22,713 units, up 8.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY). Domestic volumes stood at 19,74,939 units (up 3.9 per cent YoY), while exports surged 34.6 per cent YoY to 4,47,774 units.

"Growth was led by improved traction in the small car segment and rising participation from first-time buyers. However, volumes were partly constrained by production capacity limitations, as reflected in a strong pending order book of 1,90,000 units, including 1,30,000 units in small cars. Dealer inventory remained lean at around 12 days, indicating healthy retail demand alongside tight supply conditions," the brokerage said.

Exports continued to play a key role in the company's growth trajectory. Axis Direct noted that MSIL retained leadership with about a 49 per cent share in India's passenger vehicle (PV) exports. Quarterly export volumes touched a record of around 1.37 lakh units, with revenues estimated at over Rs 10,000 crore, driven by robust demand across global markets.

"Management refrained from providing FY27 guidance due to geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia impacting logistics. Despite this, the company expects to sustain the current run rate of 1,30,000–1,40,000 units per quarter, supported by its diversified global presence. The upcoming eVX rollout remains a key growth catalyst," it added.

In the near term, Axis Direct expects mid-single-digit domestic volume growth for FY27E and double-digit export growth.

The brokerage values the stock at 26 times FY28E earnings per share (EPS), compared with 28 times earlier, and has revised its target price to Rs 14,620 from Rs 16,860. It has maintained a 'Buy' rating on the stock.

Elara Securities, while revising its target price to Rs 16,546 from Rs 18,686, based on 26 times June 2028 EPS estimates, said, "The stock has corrected 15 per cent since February 26, 2026 (the start of the war), which largely reflects the earnings cuts. We therefore maintain our 'Buy' recommendation."

Shares of Maruti Suzuki were trading 3.53 per cent higher at Rs 13,347.15 in Wednesday's session.