Why Lupin shares downgraded to 'Hold' despite robust Q4 PAT growth | Target price

Nuvama Institutional Equities has downgraded Lupin Ltd shares to 'Hold' from earlier 'Buy' even as the pharma company delivered strong PAT growth of 81 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q4 FY26, beating Street's expectations on all fronts. The domestic also trimmed its 12-month target price.

It noted Lupin's gross margin was 75.2 per cent while EBITDA margins hit 29 per cent on the back of a superior US product mix and strong performance in emerging markets.

"FY27/28 look to be transitional periods for Lupin with FY27E growth in single digit and EBITDA margins cooling off to the 25–26 per cent range. Lupin has high reliance on gSpiriva, Tolvaptan and Mirabegron and we observe growing product concentration risk in near term," Nuvama stated.

"Promising launches such as bNeulasta Onpro, bEnbrel and gDulera remain FY29E opportunities," it added.

Nuvama highlighted that the downgrade comes as it sees limited upside left post recent uptick. "We are raising FY27E/28E EPS by 3 per cent/1 per cent each. We are building in Lupin's revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 4 per cent/-10 per cent/-12 per cent CAGR over FY26–28E. Competition in gSpiriva over next 12 months would be a surprise," it said.

"Downgrade Lupin to 'Hold' from 'Buy' after the recent rally. Our TP is Rs 2,600 (earlier Rs 2,550)," Nuvama further stated.

On the other hand, Nomura gave a 'Buy' call, assigning a target price of Rs 2,580.

Meanwhile, shares of Lupin were trading 4.88 per cent lower in Monday's trade. Despite this drop, the stock remains up 14.48 per cent over the last six months.