Axis My India's Pradeep Gupta on Monday said he does not see any major change in voting patterns in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections compared to what happened in 2019. When asked whether he is seeing no signs of major change in the country at the moment, Gupta said: "Yes, I am saying so." He, however, said it had nothing to do with numbers. The BJP had won 303 seats and NDA 353 in 2019.
"People can interpret even major changes with vis a vis ulatpher...ulatpher means upside down. That is the meaning I know. Ulatpher ka matlab hai - yaha ki cheej waha ho jana, and waha ki cheez yaha ho jana. That is something I don't see at all on the ground," Gupta said while speaking to India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai after the fourth phase of polling on May 13.
Gupta also suggested that it is highly unlikely that elections will change in the mid-way. In a bipolar contest, he said, 30-40% of voters are more or less aligned or fixed. "It is 20-30% voters - we call them floaters who decide. And most of the time, the margin between winner and loser is between 10-20% votes. Floating voters are always there. They make up their mind generally one month prior to elections start," Gupta said while responding to a specific question on whether the election could turn midway in the seven-phase polls.
Speaking on Maharashtra the contest appears to be very close, Gupta said the political alignment has totally changed in the state and that is precisely the reason nobody knows, and even the voters are confused about who is standing where. "Right from phase 1 till today, seat-sharing is done in the last minute...that is why voters are saying even we don't know our candidates."
The psephology further said that inflation and unemployment have always been an issue in the election and will remain so in the next 50 years. "But the question is rightly placed and appropriate to address them," he said, adding that this is what is always going in the voters' minds when they cast their vote. Political analyst Yogendra Yadav, who was also on the panel, said the elections have turned and the NDA may even struggle to cross the majority mark of 272 seats. When asked where the BJP is losing, Yadav said the saffron party may lose some seats in eastern Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. The loss could be significant in UP and Bihar, he said.
In 2019, the BJP swept Rajasthan (25 seats) Haryana (10), and Bihar (39 of 40 seats). In UP, the saffron party had won 62 of 80 seats.
While Yadav predicted a loss of some seats for the saffron party, political strategist Prashant Kishor in a separate interview said he does not see any major decline in the BJP's seats in the North and West. He said the saffron party is likely to maintain its current strength of 300 seats in the Lok Sabha.
"After all commentaries and debates, I don't see any meaningful decline in the BJP's seats in North and West. In the South and East, the BJP's vote share and seats will increase. The BJP has today about 300 seats, I don't see any major change in that - positively and negatively."
Kishor also said that the BJP-led NDA won't get 400 seats, but that does not mean it will come down to 200. For that to happen, he said, the BJP will have to lose 100 seats in North and West. "Those making such comments that BJP won't cross 200, they should tell - where BJP is losing these 100 seats."