Zoho Corporation CEO Sridhar Vembu has sounded the alarm over China's demographic challenges, drawing parallels to Japan's population decline in the 1990s. “Japan reached its peak technological prowess around 1990. ‘Japan as the number 1 economy, Japan overtaking the US' were serious topics then. What happened? Serious demographic decline,” Vembu wrote in a tweet on Sunday. He noted that China, while advancing as a technology leader in various fields, faces a demographic bust that could rival Japan's.
According to Vembu, demographic decline stems from choices made during rapid industrialisation, including urbanisation, the erosion of traditional culture, and the rise of nuclear families. "Demographic decline, once it sets in motion, is hard to reverse. I don't know any country that has reversed it,” he further stated. "This is another reason I prefer a rural life and I actively embrace our traditional culture."
The Zoho CEO said he wants to pursue economic development "that is pro-babies" as in the long term, "nothing else really matters".
Vembu’s remarks come amid growing discussions on the country's population dynamics, particularly in southern states. Fertility rates in these states have dropped below the replacement level of 2.1, sparking concerns about aging populations.
In November last year, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu highlighted the issue, calling for urgent measures to manage population trends. “Our fertility rate is 1.6. Generally, to maintain population, 2.1 fertility rate has to be maintained,” Naidu stated, adding that southern India's population is on the verge of decline.
Naidu warned of the economic implications of aging populations, drawing attention to trends in developed countries. “You are seeing all European countries, even Japan, even China. All countries are having an aging problem. Only India has an advantage up to 2047,” he said.
The Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister also noted societal shifts contributing to the decline in fertility rates, particularly among urban professionals. “Both husband and wife are working in IT. They say, ‘Double income, no kids, let us enjoy ourselves.’ That is the biggest danger for humanity,” he commented while speaking at HT Summit.
Naidu, who once advocated policies to limit population growth, hinted at a potential shift in approach, suggesting incentives to encourage higher fertility rates. "If you manage the population, nobody can defeat India. We are having 145 crore [people] as on today. China’s population is only 135 crore and will fall below 100 crore, while ours may reach 175 crore before declining," he stated.