The BJP is on the brink of ending its 27-year exile in Delhi, taking a decisive lead over the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the 2025 Assembly elections. If the trends hold, it will be a serious blow to AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, who faces allegations of corruption and misgovernance. Early counting results show BJP leading in 42 out of 70 seats, with AAP trailing at 28. Congress is a distant third, leading in just one seat.
A decade ago, AAP emerged as a political disruptor following the anti-corruption Anna movement, giving hope to Delhi’s residents with promises of clean governance and revolutionary reforms in education, healthcare, and utilities. In 2015, Kejriwal’s party swept to power with a massive mandate. However, the party’s second consecutive term was hit by mounting challenges — persistent pollution, water shortages, and crumbling infrastructure — issues Kejriwal frequently blamed on the Modi-led central government.
The 2025 election has exposed the cracks in the AAP's once-formidable hold on Delhi. Congress raised concerns over the Yamuna water crisis and corruption allegations to question AAP’s credibility. Rahul Gandhi’s swipe at Kejriwal for trading his humble WagonR for a lavish Rs 45 crore ‘Sheesh Mahal’ was one of many pointed attacks aimed at shaking the trust AAP once enjoyed.
While Kejriwal brushed aside Congress’ criticism, focusing his attacks on the BJP, history shows that AAP’s success in Delhi has been closely linked to Congress’s decline in the capital. The fall of Congress in 2013 enabled AAP’s rise, and the same pattern was repeated in 2015 and 2020 when Congress’s vote share collapsed, allowing AAP to dominate.
Congress’ decline in Delhi directly contributed to AAP’s rise over the years. In 2013, AAP won 28 seats with a 29.49% vote share, while Congress plummeted from 43 seats in 2008 to just 8. The shift became more pronounced in 2015 when AAP’s vote share surged by 15%, matching the steep 15% decline in Congress’ support. By 2020, Congress' fortunes had worsened further, with its vote share shrinking to just 4.26%. Meanwhile, AAP tightened its grip on Delhi, winning 62 of the 70 Assembly seats.
The potential fall of AAP in Delhi could provide Congress with an opening in Punjab, where it was reduced to 18 seats in the 2022 Assembly elections, compared to AAP’s 92. Much like Delhi, AAP’s rise in Punjab came at Congress’s expense, benefiting from internal strife within the state’s Congress unit.
However, if AAP’s decline in Delhi weakens its standing in Punjab, Congress may find an opportunity to regain its stronghold. AAP’s national ambitions, particularly in BJP-dominated Gujarat, could also suffer. In the 2022 Gujarat elections, AAP made a small but noticeable dent by securing a double-digit vote share, largely by eating into Congress’s support base.