Political strategist Prashant Kishor, whose predictions for Lok Sabha were not quite right even though the direction came true that Modi will return as Prime Minister, on Friday said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) should at least win two of three states - Haryana, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra - going to the polls later this year. He suggested that if the BJP loses all 3 states in the upcoming elections, it won't be able to defend its coalition government at the Centre. "They (BJP) will not be able to defend," he said in an exclusive interview with India Today.
When asked whether the government in Delhi would be at risk, he said: "I can't say that the government won't be able to run, but if it happens, the entire scenario people are building today...I think the INDIA alliance leaders have understood this, which is why they have said that - they will take the decision at the right time. So, if you are in the opposition, in my understanding, you should leave everything aside and focus on those three states. And if you are the BJP, come what may, you have to save at least two out of three states. If they are not saved, you will see internal discontent and allies running away."
Kishor, however, clarified that the internal discontent could be in the alliance partners. "Leaders will ultimately follow the public mood. If they (allies) feel that their (BJP's) currency has diminished so much that they can't win, people will start looking at options. Now, people think he (Modi) is down but not out."
The BJP failed to get a majority in the Lok Sabha elections and it is critically dependent on alliance partners such as Nitish Kumar's JDU (12 seats), Chandrababu Naidu's TDP (16), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (7) at the Centre.
When asked about Haryana, where Jat, Dalit, and Muslim consolidation happened in this Lok Sabha elections, Kishor said: "Consolidation of these three were there before, but the BJP won despite it."
He said the Lok Sabha results have come 50-50, and he can't say who is ahead in Haryana. The BJP and Congress won 5 seats each in Haryana. In 2019, the BJP had swept the state. In assembly elections, the saffron party won 40 of 90 seats. It formed the government with JJP, which is now out of the NDA.
In Maharashtra, the ace strategist said, the advantage is for the MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi), but not given. Explaining this, he said the spread of Muslim votes is not uniform in Maharashtra, it is concentrated. For example, he said, suppose a Lok Sabha seat has 2 lakh Muslim voters. In state elections, they may fall in two of four assembly seats. So they can make you win one Lok Sabha seat, but only two assembly seats in state elections. It becomes 50-50 in the assembly polls, he explained.
Maharashtra will go to polls later this year. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress emerged as the largest party by bagging 13 seats. Later, the Sangli MP also joined the grand old party, taking the tally to 14.
For Jharkhand, Kishor predicted an advantage for the INDIA alliance because it rules the state. "And in Jharkhand, besides SC and Muslims, ST is also a factor...this is a weak link for BJP. If they join together, it's more than 50%." The Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha are currently ruling this tribal state.
When asked if he sees any change in the BJP's internal dynamics, Kishor said if there's a change, it will be slow. "Sangh's mechanism that I understand is that even if they want to take a decision, they will do it slowly...everything will be analysed. Everyone will take a pause."
In the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 240 Lok Sabha seats, 32 short of the majority.
The saffron party is set to form the government with support from pre-poll allies JDU, Chandrababu Naidu's TDP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena (7), Chirag Paswan-led LJP (5), Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena Party (2), and others.