What will set the third Narendra Modi government apart from the ones in 2014 and 2019? The key lies in the makeup of the Eighteenth Lok Sabha. Several notable changes are on the horizon.
Enter coalition politics For the first time in a decade, India is likely to see a return to coalition politics at the center. The BJP secured outright majorities in the past two elections, but this time they are short of the 272 seats needed for a majority. They will have to rely on their pre-poll allies, including the Telugu Desam Party led by Chandrababu Naidu, Janata Dal (United) led by Nitish Kumar, Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde, and Lok Janshakti Party led by Chirag Paswan. Together, these allies bring in around 40 seats, pushing the BJP past the halfway mark, but making the government more dependent on coalition partners.
State leaders at play Regional leaders will play a more prominent role in national politics. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh have gained significant influence. Yadav’s Samajwadi Party has emerged strong in Uttar Pradesh, cutting into BJP’s seat count significantly. Similarly, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress, M.K. Stalin’s DMK, and others will use their increased numbers in Parliament to push regional agendas and exert pressure on the central government.
More decentralisation The concept of "double-engine government," where the same party rules both at the center and in the states, might face more challenges. Opposition parties argue that this undermines the principles of federalism by imposing a uniform vision on diverse states. With a more balanced representation in Lok Sabha, there will likely be a push for greater accountability and a more decentralized approach to governance.
Reforms impact Economic reforms will be a critical focus but will face significant hurdles. Previous attempts at major reforms, such as land acquisition and farm laws, met with stiff resistance and had to be repealed. Despite a majority, the BJP struggled to implement these changes, highlighting the complexity of pushing through significant economic legislation.
In the third term, with coalition dynamics at play, the government will need to build broader consensus among various stakeholders to implement reforms successfully. Privatization and disinvestment efforts, particularly in the banking sector, will require careful negotiation and strategic planning to move forward.
Recalibration of power Within the BJP and the RSS, shifts in power dynamics are expected. Modi’s previous terms allowed him significant autonomy in decision-making. However, with the need to accommodate coalition partners and the RSS’s quiet influence, there will be a recalibration of power. The new cabinet formation will reflect these dynamics, with moderate voices potentially gaining more prominence to ensure broader acceptability.