As the world’s most populous country, which is also the world’s third-largest energy consumer, India will have to walk a path that is different than what the US took several decades earlier, a leading energy analyst has said.
“There are millions of people who are living in villages with no access to energy. Our view is [India’s] path to energy transition has to introduce people who are cooking with cow dung or wood to modern cooking energy sources like LPG or through a 24x7 electric supply. Once that is done, the country will be in much better shape than it is today,” Atul Arya, Boston-based chief energy strategist at the data, research and analytics firm S&P Global Commodity Insights, told Business Today Thursday.
Currently, India’s per capita consumption of energy is a tenth of the world’s largest economy, but as millions are lifted out of poverty and living standards improve, this is also bound to grow up significantly year-on-year.
“The US went through an energy transition several decades ago. But now technology has changed so much. For instance, we have far more efficient ways of distributing electricity. So, the energy India consumes to get the same benefits [as the US] will be much lower,” averred Arya.
Arya was speaking on the sidelines of the release of S&P Global’s report Look Forward: India’s Moment covering ten critical areas in the country including economy, federal structure, green mobility, agriculture, digital infrastructure, demographic dividend, manufacturing, capital markets, climate change and energy transition till 2030.
Reduce import dependency in oil & gas
With S&P Global Commodity Insights estimating India’s total energy demand to double by 2050, its efforts to meet its growing energy needs while lowering emissions are likely to be adopted by other emerging economies. Furthermore, the country is expected to meet 90 per cent of its oil and 60 per cent of its gas demand through imports by the end of the present decade. Therefore, reducing this import dependency is pivotal to securing reliable, affordable and sustainable energy supplies.
“India will have to strike a balance to increase energy access and reliability while delivering affordable energy supplies and diversifying its fuel mix to reduce the overall carbon intensity of its energy system,” observed executive director for energy transitions and clean tech consulting, Gauri Jauhar in a note.
This could be potentially achieved by boosting output from domestic oil & gas fields, acquisition of international assets, accelerating deployment of renewables and developing green hydrogen.
Cutting down CO2 emissions
Another area relates to reducing carbon emissions, which given the country’s focus on energy security and affordability would continue increasing into the next decade. These could be best contained by phasing out ageing and inefficient thermal power plants, establishing a domestic clean energy supply chain, significantly decarbonising the transport sector and energy efficient initiatives in sectors such as industry, buildings and transportation.
Given the complexities involved in the world’s largest energy transition being undertaken by the world’s fifth-largest economy, the report has also made a series of important forward-looking recommendations.
These included increasing the quantum of energy financing through systemic improvements; aligning policy for increased coordination among stakeholders; strengthening state-owned companies to become more agile to cultivate overseas partnerships, attracting capital and accessing the latest technologies; accelerating reforms for a market-driven energy system; and boosting alignment and coordination between the central and state governments for faster decision-making.