At the turn of the century, China’s reforms had taken root, and its GDP had grown to $1.2 trillion. India’s reforms started later and so from a similar level as China in 1980 it had grown to $485 billion in 2000.
The first decade of the 21st century saw China take-off. It grew from $1.2 trillion to $6.7 trillion or from 3% to more than 10% of global GDP in 10 years.
The US, which had brought China into the World Trade Organization and encouraged its firms to shift manufacturing to China, only started to get wary of China by 2015, by when it was clearly the World number 2. China was a key market for German cars, Italian engineering and French Luxury. US President Donald Trump ran on containing China in 2016 and won. Post-Covid, the US’ new cold war was with China. Since then, the Chinese economy due to a combination of reasons—American tariffs, President Xi Jinping’s sharp attack on business, slowing population growth and increasing wages—has lost its sheen. But China remains very important, contributing over 33% of global manufacturing, 18% of global GDP and 13% of global consumption. It is also an innovation and technological powerhouse, with a strong army.
What about India? Even though India’s GDP growth rate has averaged 6.5% for three decades, in 2020 it was less than 2 % of global GDP. Post-Covid, India’s position has improved despite a volatile global geopolitical situation. Its economy today is $3.7 trillion, and all estimates expect it to cross $7 trillion by 2030, making it the third largest economy with around 6% of global GDP. This decade will see it add $5 trillion to global GDP.
Effective government policy has helped. Consequential reforms have been enacted—the Goods and Service Tax, Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, privatisation and asset monetisation and a major push towards creating a technology stack that is arguably the best in the world with an identity layer (Aadhaar), payments layer (UPI), data layer (DigiLocker) and applications layer (CoWIN, ONDC, account aggregators, etc). Combined with pushing every household to have a bank account and ubiquitous mobile phones, Indian connectivity and data usage is the highest in the world.
There has been a sharp infrastructure build out with 75 new airports, a doubling of port capacity, an addition of 15,000 km of roads, doubling rail capacity, a buildup of millions of housing units, increased power capacity, with an emphasis on renewable energy and now nuclear energy, has galvanised growth. India’s young and mobile demographics with an average age of 29—in fact the next 2 billion people in the world will come from South Asia and nine African countries—and easy internal mobility have allowed labour needs through the country to be met by workers from Bihar and the East to prevent a rise in wages.
So, yes, this will be India’s decade; but can it be India’s century? Most of India is not satisfied with its living condition. Currently, three Indias co-exist based on purchasing power parity per capita: 50 million Europeans, 450 million Indonesians, and 950 million Sub-Saharan Africans. For this to be India’s century, it needs to improve the lives of the 950 million Indians living in quiet desperation.
This requires a fix in foundational elements. Water access, basic education, primary health, and adult skilling. In addition, in today’s world, no country is safe without better defence and technology.
India’s current water consumption stands at 1,385 m3 per capita, a third of the global average and below that of low-income countries. Many parts of India are water starved. We need to act to conserve water by changing our pricing for water and power. We need to also conserve rainwater in cities and increase agricultural land under irrigation.
Malnutrition, poor access to primary health, and poor primary schools stunt our labour force productivity. By illustration, a 42-storey building takes 10 months to complete in China and four years in India, because of both bureaucratic interference and poor-quality labour. We need to use technology to improve our health and education outcomes and upgrade the existing labour stock through a massive skilling effort to truly make our advantaged demographics a dividend.
Trump’s actions after his victory are reminiscent of the bygone colonial age. ‘I want Greenland, Panama, Gaza, and Canada is my 51st state!’ The world is back to “might is right” and so India needs to improve its military strength. It must also work hard to ensure that it does not get shut out from the most advanced technologies shaping the future (Generative AI, quantum computing, biotechnology and others).
As late 19th century and early 20th century leader of the Democratic Party in the US, William Jennings Bryan, said: “Destiny is no of matter of chance, it is a matter of choice. It is not a thing to be waited for, it is a thing to be achieved.” If we want to make this our century, we must work hard to make it happen. 
The author is Janmejaya Sinha, Chairman, BCG India. Views are personal