Ever since the US Presidential election results were announced, there is one question that every country is trying to find an answer to - what will be the policy preferences of Donald J. Trump?
This is so because Trump's campaign was full of rhetoric. His views on Islam, immigration, trade and energy were considered disruptive and divisive by most. He had said curbing immigration will increase jobs for Americans and boost wages. He talked about renegotiating free-trade agreements. He hinted at making imports costlier. And the world wants to know whether any, or all of this, will happen or not. And if so, what will be the economic, political and strategic impact on other countries? The same set of questions is also of concern to India, Indian companies and their Indian employees.
Immigration: In terms of trade engagement, India simply cannot ignore the US. It has a trade surplus of $30 billion with the US and its bilateral trade engagement is worth $110 billion. Services trade remains key in the Indo-US economic engagement. It will not be too difficult to imagine the plight of Indian software companies if they were to find restrictions in movement of professionals who need to handle onsite tasks for US companies. Will Trump discourage temporary job (H-1B) visas to ensure Indian software companies employ US citizens to handle their US clients?
Trade: One of the unambiguous promises Trump made in his election manifesto was to withdraw from the Trans Pacific Partnership, the mega free-trade agreement the US had signed with 11 other Pacific Rim countries. Even though India was not part of it, there was legitimate fear that some TPP member nations may insist the same set of high standards and rules in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) deal that India and 15 other countries, including some TPP members, were trying to work out simultaneously. If the TPP collapses, the impact on RCEP negotiations could also be huge.
Energy: Trumps' manifesto, which some term as anti-environment, talks about unleashing America's $50 trillion worth of untapped shale, oil and natural gas reserves. He wants US to become totally independent of any imports from the OPEC cartel or nations hostile to US interests. In other words, investments in clean energy and issues like greenhouse emissions could take a backseat. Will it have an impact on global commitments to reduce emissions? And what would it mean for developing countries like India?
Geopolitics: Equations can also change if Trump is to be taken seriously. He has been portraying China as a villain when it comes to trade. Any trade war between the two could not only result in devaluation of the Chinese currency, but can make India's engagement with its biggest trade partner difficult. Trump's engagement with Russia, with Muslim countries and his plans to counter Islamic terrorism can also impact bilateral relations with India and its neighbours and partners.
The only hope, however, is the fact that election rhetoric often ends with the elections. US-India relations have been on a growth trajectory, irrespective of the political administration that was heading that country. Nothing yet to suggest the contrary.