Oil marketing company BPCL is likely to report up to 200 per cent jump in net profit for the March quarter, led by fuel over-recoveries and resilient refining margin. Ebitda margin is expected to expand by at least 200 basis points YoY.
Kotak Securities expects the OMC to report profit at Rs 4,628 crore, up 117 per cent YoY (136 per cent QoQ) over Rs 2,130.50 crore in the year-ago quarter. Sales is seen rising 4 per cent YoY (down 5 per cent sequential) to Rs 1,12,757.60 from Rs 1,08,773.60 crore in the year-ago quarter.
On a sequential basis, Kotak expects BPCL to report sharp QoQ improvement in earnings driven by further recovery in auto-fuel marketing margins. OMCs' marketing margins on diesel turned positive in March quarter compared to losses in December quarter it noted.
Motilal Oswal has the most optimistic estimates. It sees profit soaring 201.5 per cent YoY to Rs 7,187.70 crore on a 1.8 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 10,596 crore. This brokerage expects reported gross refining margin (GRM) at $17 a barrel, with blended gross marketing margin at Rs 4.50 per litre. It sees refinery throughput at 10.4 mt (up 28 per cent YoY, 11 per cent QoQ), led by utilisation ramp-up at Kochi refinery. Besides, it sees marketing sales (excluding exports) volumes of 12.1 mt (up 2 per cent YoY/down 6 per cent QoQ) during the quarter.
Emkay Global sees BPCL's profit at Rs 3,824 crore, up 79.5 per cent YoY. It pegged BPCL sales at Rs 1,11,478.70 crore, up 2.5 per cent. This brokerge sees core at $12.6 per barrel and report GRM at $11.6 per barrel. It sees blended marketing margin at Rs 4.9 per kg against Rs 1.6 per kg in Q3. Total sales volumes are seen up 5 per cent YoY at 13.2 mt.
Kotak sees assumed gross refining margin at $12.5 per barrel against $15.9 per barrel in December quarter. It sees crude throughput 9.5 mmt (up 1 per cent QoQ) and fuel over-recoveries of Rs 2,040 crore against Rs 3,200 crore under-recovery in December quarter. It sees inventory loss of Rs 1,200 crore -- $1.25 per barrel in refining and $0.6 per barrel in marketing.
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