Eicher Motors shares @ Rs 5,000? Here's why UBS sees up to 35% rally in the stock

Eicher Motors shares @ Rs 5,000? Here's why UBS sees up to 35% rally in the stock

Shares of Eicher Motors jumped more than 5.93 per cent to Rs 3,938.60 during the trading session on Wednesday, commanding a total market capitalization of more than Rs 1.05 lakh crore.

UBS expects Royal Enfield's (RE) upcoming 450cc platform launch to address competition and growth concerns.
Pawan Kumar Nahar
  • Mar 20, 2024,
  • Updated Mar 20, 2024, 1:00 PM IST

Shares of Eicher Motors Ltd surged during the trading session on Wednesday after the global brokerage firm UBS upgraded the counter with a revised target price. The overseas brokerage firm sees an upside potential of up to 35 per cent in the stock from its previous close. UBS expects Royal Enfield's (RE) upcoming 450cc platform launch to address competition and growth concerns. We think the market is missing continued strength in RE's addressable market, lacklustre response to competition, RE's strong customer connect and the start of a multi-year upgrade cycle among the existing customers (7m strong). Shares of Eicher Motors jumped more than 5.93 per cent to Rs 3,938.60 during the trading session on Wednesday, commanding a total market capitalization of more than Rs 1.05 lakh crore. The Nifty50 constituents had settled at Rs 3,718.10 in the previous trading session on Tuesday. Launches by Harley-Davidson (HD) and Triumph did not ramp up volume meaningfully and are tracking well below guidance, even though they were aggressively priced, said UBS. "We think the 450-roadster launch can trigger replacement demand," it said. It looked at the upcoming launch cycle, led by the 450cc roadster and forecasted 56,000 and 1,20,000 units in FY25 and FY26, respectively. We forecast a 10 per cent domestic volume CAGR in FY24-26 for RE versus the industry's 6-7 per cent. With the stock trading at a 20 per cent discount to Bajaj Auto 1-year forward PE, against a 50 per cent premium over the past 5-years, we find the risk-reward compelling, especially since RE remains insulated from electrification risk," said UBS. The global brokerage forecast an 18 per cent Ebitda CAGR in FY24-26 for Eicher and are 11 per cent ahead of consensus in PAT by FY26. "Our forecast is underpinned by domestic demand and a continued favourable backdrop for export. We upgrade our rating from 'neutral' to 'buy' and add Eicher as an APAC Key Call," it said with a new target price of Rs 5,000, which was Rs 4,300 earlier. Among other brokerage firms, Antique Stock Broking also has a buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 4,764. However, domestic brokerage firms Kotak Institutional Equities and HDFC Securities maintain a 'sell' rating on the counter with a target price of Rs 3,100 and Rs 3,597, respectively.

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