RIL Q4 earnings preview: The Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) is likely to report a 5-10 per cent drop in year-on-year (YoY) consolidated profit growth for the March quarter on a double-digit rise in consolidated sales. Ebitda margin is seen in the 18-18.5 per cent range. Retail segment may continue to do well, refining margins are seen improving but the petchem division could stay under pressure, analysts said, while suggesting a flattish sequential average revenue per user (ARPU).
Prabhudas Lilladher expects the oil-to-telecom conglomerate to log 10.7 per cent YoY drop in profit at Rs 17,230 crore. PL sees sales rising 13.7 per cent YoY to Rs 2,42,020 crore. Margin is seen at 17.6 per cent, down 50 basis points over 18.1 per cent YoY.
"For Reliance's standalone segment, refining margins are expected to improve; however, petchem will remain under pressure. We expect a 2 per cent QoQ subscriber growth and flat ARPU at Rs 182 per month growth in Jio while the retail segment should continue its resilient performance," PL said.
Shares of Reliance Industries have risen 13.58 per cent in 2024 so far against a 1.13 per cent rise in the BSE Sensex. The BSE oil & gas index is up 22 per cent during the same period.
Emkay Global sees profit falling 5 per cent YoY to Rs 18,335 crore on 10.1 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 2,34,371 crore. This brokerage sees Ebitda rising 12.6 per cent YoY to Rs 43,283 crore and margin at 18.5 per cent.
"O2C Ebitda rise 16 per cent QoQ to Rs 16,260 crore; upstream Ebitda down 4 per cent QoQ to Rs 5,570 crore; retail Ebitda may rise 1 per cent QoQ; Jio ARPU may rise 0.4 per cent QoQ, 10.5 million subscribers additions in Q4FY24," Emkay said.
ICICI Securities expects Reliance to see a sharp jump in its OTC segment earnings QoQ with an estimated $1 a barrel QoQ improvement in GRMs, better petchem spreads and higher refining throughput given the December quarter had a shutdown at some refinery units).
"RJio may deliver 2 per cent QoQ rise in Ebitda, with RIL’s retail Ebitda growing 1.4 per cent QoQ. Overall, consolidated Ebitda may jump 5 per cent QoQ and PAT can rise 6 per cent QoQ in Q4FY24E," the brokerage said while suggesting about a 5 per cent drop in profit at Rs 18,400 crore. Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities sees RIL's Q4 profit falling 7.5 per cent YoY to Rs 17,852 crore.
Along with its Q4 results, the RIL board would also consider paying dividend for FY24. A presentation to analysts and media on financial results of the company for the quarter and year ended March 31, 2024 shall be made on the same day after the meeting, Reliance Industries said recently.