Shares of metal majors Vedanta Ltd and Tata Steel Ltd have turned negative in the year 2025. Both Vedanta and Tata Steel stocks are down 2% this year. The metal stocks are highly volatile with beta of 1.3 (Vedanta) and 1.4 (Tata Steel) in the last one year. Of late, Vedanta and Tata Steel along with other metal shares were in news after US President Donald Trump said he would soon introduce 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US. Last week, metal shares rose as RBI reduced repo rate by 25 bps to 6.25%.
Shares of Vedanta, Tata Steel, NMDC, SAIL, Hindalco, Jindal Steel and JSW Steel fell up to 7% on February 3 after US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.
The two metal stocks have seen more negative sentiment in the short term due to Trump announcing steps to safeguard the US economy.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel shares ended 3.11% lower at Rs 134 on Monday against the previous close of Rs 138.30 on BSE. Market cap of the firm slipped to Rs 1.67 lakh crore. Total 11.24 lakh shares changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 15.10 crore on BSE. The Tata Group stock is trading near its 52-week low of Rs 122.60 reached on January 13 this year.
The stock is trading lower than the 50 day, 100 day, 150 day, 200 day but higher than the 10 day, 20 day and 30 day moving averages. In a year, the stock has slipped 5.17%.
In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Tata Steel stock stands at 51.3, signaling it's trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone
Brokerage Motilal Oswal is neutral on the Tata Steel stock.
"We have marginally reduced our revenue/EBITDA estimates by 4%/5% for both FY25/26 and PAT by 5%/10% for FY26/FY27. TATA is trading at 5.6x FY27E EV/EBITDA and 1.6x FY27E P/B. We reiterate our Neutral rating with a revised SOTP-based TP of Rs 140," said Tata Steel.
Axis Securities has a buy rating with a price target of Rs 155(from Rs 175 per share) on the Tata Steel stock.
"We cut our EV/EBITDA multiple for Indian operations from 7.5x to 7.0x, citing the expiry of the mining lease in FY30 and muted visibility towards growth projects beyond KPO-II due to rising leverage and decarbonisation capex requirement in Europe. We cut our EBITDA estimates for FY26/27 by 10%/7%, respectively, as we factor in lower steel prices. However, we retain a BUY rating as we roll forward our valuation from Sep’26 to Dec’26 and as our target price indicates a 20% upside from the CMP post-recent price correction," said Axis Securities.
Global brokerage JP Morgan has maintained an overweight stance on the stock with a target price of Rs 155. The company reported a better EBITDA on the back of lower-than-expected other expenses. Net debt reduction is a key positive for the company said the brokerage adding that earnings surprise was led by both India and US. Average selling prices were slightly better than expectations. Management's clarity on trajectory of raw material costs and Europe business profitability are key monitorables, said the global brokerage.
Global brokerage Morgan Stanley has maintained equal weight rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 160. The brokerage said the company posted good show on domestic business. Its UK business performance was in line and other geographies did well said the brokerage adding that lower freight, handling, and repair costs boosted earnings.
Vedanta
The metal stock slipped 4.31% on Monday to close at Rs 435.90 on BSE. Market cap of the firm fell to Rs 1.70 lakh crore. A total of 4.50 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 19.70 crore on BSE.
The stock has gained 210% in five years and risen 58.88% in a year.
In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of Vedanta stands at 46.6, signaling the stock is trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold territory. Vedanta shares are trading lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day moving averages.
Nuvama has a price target of Rs 633 on the stock.
"We factor in an EBITDA CAGR of 22 per cent over FY24–27E to Rs 63,700 crore. We believe the aluminium segment will be the biggest growth driver, and the company will position itself in the first decile of the world cost curve by FY28E. We retain the positive stance on Vedanta amid company-specific triggers such as high dividend, cost reduction and volume growth in aluminium and zinc from FY26 and demerger of businesses, unlocking value," said Nuvama.
Motilal Oswal has a neutral rating on the metal stock with a price target of Rs 500.
"Vedanta's Q3 performance came largely in line across segments. Capex plans are progressing well and will likely lead to further cost savings," said MOFSL.
The company management is targeting to maintain strong growth in earnings, led by the upcoming capacity, which will produce higher VAP products. Vedanta remained firm on its deleveraging plans. Higher cash flows will support both its expansion plan and deleveraging efforts, MOFSL said.
"The stock currently trades at 4.9 times FY27E EV/EBITDA. We largely maintain our estimates and reiterate our Neutral rating on the stock with a SoTP-based target price of Rs 500," the domestic brokerage said.
Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi said, "Support will be at Rs 420 and resistance at Rs 458. A decisive move above the Rs 458 level may trigger a further upside of Rs 475. The expected trading range will be between Rs 410 to Rs 475 for the short-term."