Vedanta is likely to report a muted set of numbers in the December quarter. The mining major's adjusted net profit may fall up to three-fourth on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, following the softening of the commodity cycle, said analysts. However, on a quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis, profit may stay flattish, they said, adding that Ebitda may plunge 40 per cent YoY, due to lower realisation in the major segments like copper, aluminium, zinc and crude. The Anil Agrawal-led firm is an Indian multinational mining conglomerate, headquartered in Mumbai, with its main operations in iron ore, gold and aluminium mines in Goa, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Odisha. Nuvama Institutional Equities expects Vedanta to report a revenue of Rs 31,259.8 crore, down 14.7 per cent QoQ and 8.3 per cent YoY, with Ebitda at Rs 6,282.6 crore, down 12.5 per cent QoQ and 41.5 per cent YoY. The brokerage expects adjusted PAT at Rs 1,121.8 crore, down 73.3 per cent QoQ, Nuvama said. Except for aluminium and power, all other segments are expected to report a decline in Ebitda QoQ, it said.
"The aluminium Ebitda is likely to increase by 35 per cent QoQ, whereas Zinc International’s earnings are expected to be suppressed due to lower zinc prices, higher margins. Power EBITDA is expected to increase by 32 per cent, " Nuvama said. Phillip Capital expects no major surprise in the Q3 earnings. It sees Vedanta to report a revenue of Rs 34,371.5 crore, dropping 6.2 per cent QoQ (flat YoY). Ebitda is seen at Rs 6,393.80 crore, down 17 per cent QoQ and 40.5 per cent YoY. Adjusted profit after tax (PAT) is seen at Rs 1,085.8 crore, down 31 per cent sequentially. Vedanta’s aluminium, crude and zinc realisations fell fallen 2-9 per cent sequentially, translating to subdued operating performance, Phillip Capital said adding that production failed to ramp up even as rationalisation of cost of products helped operating performance, it said. Phillip Capital has a neutral rating on Vedanta. Centrum Broking expects Vedanta's revenue at Rs 32,166.90 crore, down 12.2 per cent QoQ and 5.7 per cent YoY. It sees Ebitda at Rs 6,329.30 crore, down 11.8 per cent QoQ and 41.1 per cent YoY. Vedanta can report an adjusted net profit at Rs 1,205 crore in Q3FY23, down 71 per cent YoY from Rs 4,201 crore in Q3FY22, it said. Zinc, copper, oil & gas and aluminium realisation may drop between 12 and 21 per cent sequentially, while power and steel production is likely to rise 10 per cent and 78.9 per cent, Centrum Broking said while suggesting a target of Rs 407 on the stock.
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