YES Bank to share Q4 results on Saturday, April 22. Here're earnings projections by Nuvama, 3 others

YES Bank, whose shares have risen 8 per cent in the last one month, will report its March quarter results on Saturday, April 22. Analysts are largely expecting March to be a tepid quarter in terms of profitability; they see single digit growth in year-on-year (YoY) net interest income (NII) and a drop in net interest margin on both sequential and YoY basis.

Nuvama Institutional Equities expects YES Bank to see a 15 per cent YoY drop in profit at Rs 310 crore, even if it would mean a 503 per cent surge in profit on a sequential basis. It sees NII for YES Bank to grow 6.1 per cent YoY at Rs 1,930 crore for the quarter NIM for the private lender is seen contracting 15 basis points (both QoQ and YoY) to 2.35 per cent for the quarter. Higher cost of funding will lead to lower NIM and NII for YES Bank, it said. Slippages as percentage of lagged loans are seen at 0.44 per cent.  

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Emkay Global sees YES Bank’s profit falling 36.9 per cent YoY to Rs 231.90 crore on a 14.2 per cent YoY rise in NII at Rs 2,077.40 crore. It sees pre-provision operating profit for YES Bank at Rs 901.80 crore, up 16.5 per cent YoY. The brokerage sees NIM at 2.5 per cent. "We anticipate better growth and some normalisation of credit cost to increase profits on a QoQ basis. Slippages are expected to moderate in comparison to Q3 levels," it said.

Kotak Institutional Equities expects YES Bank to log a 12.5 per cent YoY fall in net profit at Rs 321.70 crore compared with 367.50 crore in the same quarter last year. NII for YES Bank is seen rising 6.2 per cent YoY to Rs 1,932.80 crore from Rs 1,819 crore in the year-ago quarter. Net interest margin is seen flat at 3.1 per cent.

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"We expect NII to grow 6 per cent YoY reflecting the underlying business growth. Business momentum is gaining traction across retail and MSME segments but overall loan growth to be lower than industry average at 11 per cent YoY. Deposit growth at 11 per cent YoY is meeting the business requirements but has significantly decelerated in recent quarters. We expect NIM QoQ at 2.5 per cent (stable QoQ). Revenue growth pressure to remain high especially led by weak treasury income," Kotak said.

JM Financial has the most optimistic view among the handful brokerages. This brokerage, in fact, sees profit for YES Bank rising 10.3 per cent YoY to Rs 405.30 crore on a 21.7 per cent jump in NII at Rs 2,215 crore.                

Also read: YES Bank shares: Mutual funds, FPIs cut stakes amid March lock-in expiry; banks, LIC stayed put in Q4

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