Adani group stock: A couple of brokerages, which participated in APSEZ Investor Day 2024, suggested up to 63 per cent upside potential for shares of Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd amid strong growth potential. Nuvama Institutional Equities gave the stock an 'Outperform' rating and suggested a target price of Rs 1,960 apiece. Kotak Institutional Equities has a 'Buy' rating on the stock with a fair value of Rs 1,630. MOFSL said 'Buy' Adani Ports stock with a price target of Rs 1,530 per share.
On Monday, Adani Ports was trading 1.12 per cent higher at Rs 1,202.95. The scrip is down 19 per cent in the past three months, but still up 15 per cent in 2024 so far. The Adani Ports target prices suggest up to 63 per cent potential upside on the counters.
Analysts said Adani Ports reiterated its guidance of 1 billion tonne of handling volume by 2030, to be led by domestic (12 pr cent CAGR) and international (to be selective and through local partners). Logistics (container and non-container) segment is expected to be a significant growth driver (waterfront to customer gate strategy).
The Adani group firm sees a significant technology advancement in ports and logistics operations, with Vizhinjam becoming the first semi-automated container port in South East Asia. Besides, the company expects to maintain a strong balance sheet discipline.
"We are tweaking estimates and maintain ‘Buy’ with a target price of Rs 1,960, based on 20x Dec-26 EV/Ebitda," said Nuvama Institutional Equities. The brokerage sees group level adverse developments as key risks.
The brokerage said APSEZ remains focused on maintaining strong balance sheet discipline, noting that its net debt to Ebitda has already improved from 3.3 times in FY21 to 2 times in H1FY25, well within ceiling of 3.5 times.
"APSEZ expects 18 per cent CAGR in OCF to touch INR345bn in FY29 (FY24–29), implying strong 95 per cent OCF/Ebitda ratio (94 per cent in FY24). Moreover, this theoretically implies cumulative OCF of Rs 1.3 lakh crore in FY24–29, comfortably covering its capex, without considering tapping any refinancing measures," it said.
OCF stands for operating cash flow.
MOFSL said Adani Ports is likely to outpace India's overall growth, driven by a balanced port mix along India's western and eastern coastlines and a diversified cargo mix. The company continues to invest heavily in the port and logistics business to drive growth, it said.
"We expect ADSEZ to report 10 per cent growth in cargo volumes over FY24-27. This would drive a revenue/Ebitda/PAT CAGR of 15 per cent, 15 per cent and 21 per cent over FY24-27. We reiterate our Buy rating with a target price of Rs 1,530 (premised on 16x Sep-26 EV/Ebitda)," it said.
Kotak Institutional Equities, meanwhile, lowered its fair value to Rs1,630, which is a net effect of lower realisation growth for assets in place, scaled down margin assumptions for the decade, and a higher volume growth expectation to be accrued from the ongoing intangible investments.
"We expect 11 per cent volume CAGR for ADSEZ over the next 10 years while valuing it at a 10.5 per cent WACC. The current market price implies a 14 times EV/Ebitda as of December 2025, while the historical levels of the same has been 10-16 times," Kotak said.