Thanks to Allu Arjun's blockbuster Pushpa 2: The Rule and other hit films such as Bhool Bhulaiya 3 and Singham Again, stock analysts tracking multiplexes expect December to be a strong quarter for PVR Inox Ltd. They see occupancy levels and advertisement revenue improving and profitability surging for the quarter. Revenue is seen growing in 8-14 per cent range YoY.
Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities said 3QFY25 will likely be a very strong quarter with occupancies closer to 30 per cent on the back of many strong performers as well as the holiday season.
To recall, Q2FY24 had turned out to be the best in the Indian multiplex’s history, but Q3FY24 saw a sharp sequential dip and the trend continued into Q4FY24 and Q1FY25 on a sequential basis. In Q2FY25, the sector observed the highest grossing Hindi film of all time in ‘Stree: 2’ with Rs 720 crore gross box office collection (GBOC) and ‘GOAT’ from the regional genre at Rs 300 crore, which brought about a strong rebound in occupancies.
"We expect this quarter to be positive for PVRINOX as Bollywood and Hollywood content performed well where the share of BO is higher for it as compared to regional movies. PVR Inox has a higher share of Hollywood box office revenue in India at (50-70 per cent) vs Bollywood BO (30-40 per cent) and Regional Movies (10-25 per cent)," Nirmal Bang said.
Elara Capital said key metrics for PVR Inox may script a strong comeback sequentially, as it sees occupancy at 27 per cent against 25.7 per cent in Q2FY25 and 25.2 per cent in in the year-ago quarter. It sees average ticket price (ATP) at Rs 231 in the December quarter from Rs 216 in Q2 and Rs 228 in the year-ago quarter. Net spend per head (SPH) is seen at Rs 137 against Rs 135 in Q2 and Rs 131 YoY.
"In Q3, net Hindi box office collection jumped 40 per cent/7 per cent QoQ/YoY to Rs 1,510 crore, backed by Rs 730 crore, Rs 250 crore and Rs 260 crore collections for Pusha-2, Singham Again and BB3. Footfalls may grow slightly to 3.9 crore, hit by soft October. Net screen addition (two) has been muted in Q3. Ad revenue is also expected to grow 15 per cent YoY," Elara said.
Overall its sees revenue of PVR to grow to 13.9 per cent and sees Ebitda margin at 31.3 per cent, up 78 basis points YoY.Elara sees adjusted net profit at Rs 41.60 crore.
Emkay Global sees PAT for PVR Inox rising 91.6 per cent YoY to Rs 24.90 crore on 9.4 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 1,691.20 crore. "SPH should see an uptick to Rs 140 in Q3 from Rs136 in Q2. Advertising revenue is expected to show a sharp growth to Rs 150 crore in Q3 from Rs 110 crore in Q2. We estimate an Ebitda profit of Rs 230 crore (pre- IND AS), up 25 per cent QoQ on account of some improvement in revenue," it said.
Nuvama sees profit at Rs 19 crore, up 48 per cent YoY. It sees sales rising 8 per cent YoY to Rs 1,670 crore.