One 97 Communications Ltd (Paytm) is likely to report a 35-36 per cent year-on-year (YoY) drop in sales for the December quarter. Including one-off gains, it is seen reporting profit for the third quarter. YES Securities said it assumed 10 per cent sequential growth in payments services revenue and 25 per cent QoQ growth in financial services to arrive at an overall growth in revenue from operations projection of 11 per cent QoQ.
"We forecast Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of payments revenue to be at 55 per cent, a metric that was 54.6 per cent in 2QFY25. We arrive at a total expenses (excluding PPC and ESOP Expense) growth of 3 per cent QoQ, compared with a de-growth of 13 per cent in 2QFY25, resulting in an Ebitda margin (excluding other income and before ESOP cost) of -5.4 per cent, an improvement (lower negative) of 575 bps QoQ," YES Securities said.
The brokearge said Paytm will receive an exceptional gain on sale of Paypay Stock Acquisition Rights during Q3. It sees Paytm's profit after tax at Rs 1,971 crore. It sees revenue falling 35.4 per cent YoY to Rs 1,842.40 crore.
Ahead of its quarterly results, shares of Paytm were trading 0.77 per cent lower at Rs 893.25. The stock is down 10 per cent in 2025 so far.
MOFSL expects Paytm operating profitability to improve. It said disbursements and gross merchandise value (GMV) may increase sequentially. It sees total revenue growth to improve and said traction on new business verticals to be a key monitorable today.
This brokerage expects Paytm to report adjusted loss of Rs 356.10 crore. This brokerage sees revenue at Rs 1,800 crore, down 36.90 per cent YoY.
"We estimate 10 per cent QoQ growth in GMV in 3QFY25 to Rs 4.9 lakh crore. Revenue from operations is projected to increase 8 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,800 crore, while contribution profit is estimated to rise 14 per cent QoQ to Rs 1,012 crore in 3QFY25. Contribution margin is thus likely to improve to 56.6 per cent," it said.
In a January 15 note, Emkay Global said the recent NPCI approvalreleased a major regulatory overhang, which should help Paytm rebuild the MTU base in the next 12-18 months and thus cross-sell retail financial products like loans, insurance, and wealth products, thereby improving revenue per user.
"This, coupled with continued strong traction in merchant device subscription revenue, rising share of UPI on CC with MDR, accelerating merchant loan business with a better take rate, continued cost optimization, and rising non-operational income should put Paytm on the early path to profitability by FY26E, with acceleration thereafter," it said.