A handful of corporates including ONGC, Vedanta Ltd, TVS Motor Ltd, Shree Cement Ltd, Tata Power Company Ltd and Lupin Ltd, among others, recently came out with their June quarter earnings Here's what analysts said on the business outlooks and stock price targets:
ONGC | Target price: Rs 360 per share Emkay Global said ONGC posted a 10 per cent beat on Q1FY25E standalone Ebitda, led by lower-than-expected opex and levies. Reported profit at Rs 8,940 crore saw a similar beat. Total crude production fell 1.4 per cent YoY to 5.2 mmt, which was inline with expectations, whereas gas output declined 4.1 per cent YoY to 5.0bcm (1 per cent above estimates). The management reiterated ramp-up in KG-98/2 peak oil and gas output by Q4FY25.
"DGH is working on modalities with respect to premium APM gas pricing for new wells and interventions (12 per cent of oil price), with likely positive development before year-end. We increase FY25-26E SA earnings 3 per cent each on lower opex and raise Sep-25E target price by 13 per cent to Rs 360 per share on roll-over to Sep-26E, besides building in lower costs and higher value of listed investments," Emkay said.
The brokerage retained 'BUY' on the stock, on better volume outlook, attractive valuations, and potential gas pricing triggers.
TVS Motor | Target price: Rs 2,102 per share Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities has resumed coverage on TVS Motor with the 'Sell' rating, as it assigned a target price of Rs 2,102, valuing the standalone business at 28 times June 2026 EPS - inline with its 5-year PE. It values the lending business at Rs 201 per share. The brokerage remains cautious as it believes that the valuation has run ahead of the fundamentals. It is building in volume CAGR of 11 per cent for TVS Motor over FY24-FY27, revenue CAGR of 14 per cent and margin expansion of 50 bps from current levels
"At current valuation of 40 times 1-year forward earnings, the reverse DCF indicates an asking rate of 19 per cent revenue CAGR for the next five years, which in-turn indicates volume CAGR of 15 per cent. We believe that the 2W industry will grow at 7-9 per cent CAGR over the next five years. We believe that outperforming 2W industry growth by such a wide margin is relatively difficult despite market share gains when TVS doesn’t enjoy leadership in any of the operating segments," it said.
Vedanta | Target: Rs 460 per share Vedanta, MOFSL said, remains firm on its deleveraging plans. It believes higher cash flow going forward will support Vedanta's expansion plan. "The stock currently trades at 5.4 times FY26E EV/Ebitda. We reiterate our Neutral rating on the stock with a revised SoTP-based target price of Rs 460," the brokerage said.
MOFSL noted that Vedanta is committed to execute about $8 billion of growth capex in the next few years. It is aiming to reach a production of 3,00,000 barrels per day for its oil & gas business, whereas the iron ore business in Liberia is likely to produce 30 mtpa.
"The BALCO expansion is scheduled to be commissioned this year in 4QFY25 (earlier 3QFY25), and the operation is likely to commence from 1QFY26. The Radhikapur coal block is likely to start operations by 4QFY25, having secured environmental clearance and completed stage 1 forest clearances, following compliance checks," it said.
Lupin | Target price: Rs 1,952 per share
Nomura India said it has a 'Buy' rating on the Lupin stock with a March 2025 target price of Rs 1,952 based on 27.5 times FY26F EPS of Rs 71. The stock currently trades at 33.3 times and 26.9 times FY25F and FY26 EPS of Rs 57.40 and Rs 71, respectively.
"We think upcycles across businesses will drive expansion of EBITDA margin and earnings growth. We highlighted the Tolvaptan generic opportunity in our recent note that can present upside to current estimates," it said.
The brokerage said the June quarter results for Lupin were 4 per cent higher than its estimate on sales, 9 per cent higher on Ebitda and 19 per cent higher on profit fronts. "India sales growth at 17.5 per cent YoY, was 6 per cent higher than our estimate. India region formulations (domestic formulations) sales growth was 10.5 per cent YoY. US revenue at $227 million was up $18 million QoQ. The growth is supported by launch of gMyrbetriq, negated by lower gSuprep, in our view. North America sales were largely in-line with our estimate," it said.
Tata Power | Target price: Rs 346 per share
Nuvama Institutional said Tata Power can achieve its target of doubling FY23 PAT only by FY27–28, post completion of its 15GW RE (renewable energy) target and scale-up of captive solar manufacturing plant (4.3GW).
For now, it felt these triggers are more than factored in the prevailing market price and, thus, Tata Power valuations are lofty valuation at 25 times FY26 PE and 3.4 times FY26 P/BV. Profit growth will be visible only when all RE additions start contributing fully to earnings by FY27–28E, it noted.
"We include the optionality of new projects—Bhutan Hydro Project and transmission TBCB orders-wins—and roll over the valuation to FY27E and yet find limited upside even in our bull case (exhibit 3) of CGPL profits u/s 11, RE valued at Rs 60,000 crore (150 per cent of deal value) and coal price of $90. We retain ‘REDUCE’ with an SotP-based target price of Rs 346," it said.
Shree Cement | Target price: Rs 33,400 per share Nomura India maintained its Buy rating on Shree Cement and target price of Rs 33,400, which is based on 19 times one-year forward EV/Ebitda. The stock is currently trading at 17.5 times one-year-forward EV/Ebitda. The Shree Cement earnings call is scheduled at 04 PM today.
Nomura India said the cement maker commissioned a 3 mt greenfield integrated unit at Guntur, Andhra Pradesh in early April. The management has stated that work on the other 15.4 mt plants is on schedule. Shree should have 74.80 mt capacity post completion of all the plants, the brokerage said.
On June quarter results, Nomura said: "1QFY25 Ebitda of Rs 920 crore missed both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates by 19 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively. The miss was driven by a higher-than-industry- average decline in blended realisations; 1QFY25 blended realizations declined 6 per cent QoQ against our expectation of a 2 per cent drop and a 3 per cent decline for the industry. Furthermore, we expect around Rs 450 crore in revenue from the sale of merchant power in 1Q," it said.