The diplomatic relations between India and Canada have plunged further into turbulence, sparking uncertainty for several Indian visa applicants. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has stated that the country "reserves the right to take further steps" in response to accusations made by Canada against Indian diplomats.
This escalation in tensions has raised concerns over the processing of visas, particularly impacting students looking to study abroad.
Recent events saw India expelling six Canadian diplomats and withdrawing its High Commissioner and other officials, a move that has significantly reduced operational capacity at Indian missions in Canada.
In response to the escalating tensions, India last year had briefly suspended visa issuance to Canadian citizens, causing significant difficulty for many in the Indian diaspora, who often seek to visit family in India.
During this suspension, individuals with valid Overseas Citizen of India (OCI) cards or long-term visas were able to navigate around the restrictions, but for many others, the halt in processing created considerable hardships.
Despite these challenges, India gradually resumed visa services in November 2023, prioritising business and medical visas while navigating the complexities of the strained diplomatic backdrop. Meanwhile, Canada has also paused visa and in-person consular services in several major Indian cities, including Bengaluru, Chandigarh, and Mumbai.
Travel between the two nations remains hindered by the absence of direct air connectivity, a situation that has persisted since the COVID-19 pandemic.
India is a significant source of immigration to Canada, with numerous applicants seeking permanent residency, work permits, and study visas each year. Earlier this year, Canada imposed a cap on international student visas at 360,000 for two years, a 35% cut compared to 2022. This decision has notably impacted Indian students, who compose over 41% of Canada’s international student population, leading to fewer opportunities for those aspiring to pursue higher education in the country.
What lies ahead?
These diplomatic downsizings have a possibility of decreasing the number of visas issued, compounding existing challenges as visa numbers are already at a low due to ongoing diplomatic disputes. This situation has been worsened by the fallout over the killing of Khalistani activist Hardeep Nijjar in Canada, which has been a flashpoint in India-Canada relations.
On the Canadian side, more than two-thirds of its diplomats have been withdrawn from India, with local staffing at missions also significantly reduced since September of the previous year.