RBI data doesn’t tell the full story: Finfluencer decodes hidden value of real estate in India

RBI data doesn’t tell the full story: Finfluencer decodes hidden value of real estate in India

Shrivastava questioned how RBI's House Price Index (HPI) accurately reflects real estate performance when many transactions involve undeclared cash components.

The RBI’s HPI tracks real estate price growth but has inherent limitations. It excludes rental income, which contributes 2-3% annually, and may not capture full transaction values due to unreported cash components.
Business Today Desk
  • Feb 27, 2025,
  • Updated Feb 27, 2025, 9:39 AM IST

For years, investors have debated whether real estate or equities offer better returns. Wisdom Hatch founder Akshat Shrivastava in a post on X added his perspective, pointing out a critical flaw in real estate data: it fails to account for black money. 

Shrivastava questioned how RBI's House Price Index (HPI) accurately reflects real estate performance when many transactions involve undeclared cash components.

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While equities, particularly the Nifty 500, have delivered 17% annual returns over two decades, Shrivastava believes real estate might be undervalued when considering rental income, leverage, and tax advantages. 

His argument has reignited the real estate vs. stock market debate, forcing investors to rethink how they assess asset performance.

The RBI’s HPI tracks real estate price growth but has inherent limitations. It excludes rental income, which contributes 2-3% annually, and may not capture full transaction values due to unreported cash components. As Shrivastava points out, real estate deals in India often follow an 80-20 pattern, where only 80% of the payment is officially recorded, making reported price growth seem lower than actual gains.

Equities have historically outperformed real estate in raw returns. The Nifty 500 has grown 18.2% over the past year, while RBI data suggests real estate prices grew by just 4.3%. However, this comparison lacks important factors:

  • Rental Income: Adds 2.5-3.5% annually to real estate returns.
  • Leverage: A homebuyer investing ₹10 lakh with an ₹40 lakh loan sees amplified returns on their initial capital.
  • Tax Benefits: Mortgage interest deductions offer financial advantages not reflected in price growth data.

A simple ₹50 lakh investment comparison highlights the gap:

Asset 1-Year Growth Additional Returns Total Return
Real Estate 4.3% (₹2.15 lakh) Rental yield: 3% (₹1.5 lakh) 7.3%
Equities (Nifty 500) 18.2% (₹9.1 lakh) N/A 18.2%

On pure growth, equities win, but real estate’s leverage and stability make it attractive for long-term investors.

Risk, liquidity, and market variations:

  • Risk & Stability: Stocks are volatile; real estate is more stable.
  • Liquidity: Equities are easy to sell, while real estate requires time and transaction costs.
  • Market Variations: Luxury vs. affordable housing and commercial vs. residential properties perform differently across cities.  

     

Shrivastava’s argument highlights how real estate’s true value is often understated. While equities provide higher liquidity and diversification, real estate offers stability, tax benefits, and potential for leveraged growth. The ideal investment strategy? A balanced mix of both—leveraging the strengths of each asset class.

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