Weeks after it emerged that an asteroid was projected to collide with Earth in 2032, NASA has now significantly lowered the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting the planet to near-zero.
According to the latest update from NASA, the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth is near zero at just 0.004%.
Initially, when the space rock was discovered, astronomers noted a small but notable chance of collision in 2032. However, with further observations and precise trajectory calculations by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), the risk has been eliminated for at least the next century.
As more data on 2024 YR4 was collected and analysed, experts at NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) refined its future path. The latest calculations now confirm that on December 22, 2032, the asteroid’s position will be farther away from Earth than initially expected.
However, while Earth is safe, there remains a small 1.7% chance that the asteroid could impact the Moon on that same date.
Although 2024 YR4 is no longer a concern for Earth, NASA will continue monitoring it using observatories funded by the Planetary Defense Coordination Office. Additionally, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is set to observe the asteroid in March to provide better insights into its size and composition.
Despite the asteroid no longer being a threat, NASA scientists stress that 2024 YR4 provided a crucial opportunity to test planetary defense systems and refine asteroid tracking methods. The agency continues to track all near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) with potential impact risks, with the latest data available on NASA’s Sentry system.
NASA will keep a close eye on 2024 YR4 and other potentially hazardous asteroids to ensure Earth’s safety.