The Centre's Economic Survey 2023-24 said that the economy is expected to grow between 6 per cent and 6.8 per cent in the next financial year starting April 1, down from 7 per cent projected for the current year. The annual Economic Survey report tabled by FM Nirmala Sitharaman in Lok Sabha on Tuesday highlighted that its baseline scenario for growth for 2023-24 was 6.5 per cent as compared to 7 per cent this fiscal and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.
The survey said: "The projection is broadly comparable to the estimates provided by multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the ADB and by RBI, domestically. The actual outcome for real GDP growth will probably lie in the range of 6 per cent to 6.8 per cent, depending on the trajectory of economic and political developments globally."
The survey said that in nominal terms, the GDP will grow at 11 per cent in the next fiscal, starting from April.
The Economic Survey, which was compiled by Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran this year, is generally tabled a day ahead of the Union Budget presentation. The 2023 survey noted that the second half of 2022-23 was hit by slowing world growth, shrinking global trade, which led to the loss of export stimulus.
The survey noted that the GDP growth in the coming fiscal will be driven by higher capital expenditure, private consumption, credit growth to small businesses, strengthening the corporate balance sheet, and return of migrant workers to cities.
The survey pointed out that the domestic currency, the rupee, might come under pressure if the current account deficit (CAD) widens further due to global recession fears and high global commodity prices. At present, commodity prices are at a high due to various factors.
It added that India has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to finance the CAD and intervene in the forex market to manage rupee volatility.
On inflation, the Economic Survey 2023 highlighted that the CPI inflation did not "creep too far above" the RBI's tolerance range, which is way higher in other countries.
The survey said the initiatives that drove growth in 2022-23 were credit disbursal, capital investment cycle, and expansion of the public digital platform. Schemes like PLI, National Logistics Policy, and PM Gati Shakti are set to drive economic growth in the coming fiscal.
The Economic Survey 2023 stated the government is confident that despite the GDP growth slowing down in the coming financial year 2023-24, India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world.
It added that India is the fifth-largest economy in terms of the exchange rate and the third-largest in terms of purchasing power parity.
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