IMF Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath on Tuesday talked about the impact that generative artificial intelligence will have on the future of employment in the world and India. "Our estimate is that about 40% of jobs globally are vulnerable," she said while speaking to Business Today's Executive Director Rahul Kanwal on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos.
Gopinath, however, quickly added that being vulnerable doesn't necessarily mean it is a bad thing. She said artificial intelligence would impact some jobs positively as it will increase productivity. "But then you could have the other kind of exposure where you get displaced. So if we do that breakdown, then it's about half and half."
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The economist then said that the impact of AI on India will be relatively less as a significant number of people are still in the agriculture sector. But that means, she said, the country may also miss on some of the positive impacts of the technology.
"There's a lot of variation, so if you look at the US, we have about a 60% exposure. About 30 per cent of that was complimenting the worker, and 30 per cent was not complimenting the worker. If you look at India, because there's a very large number of workers who are in the agricultural sector, the exposure is lower at around 30 per cent. So in a sense, India doesn't have a negative effect on the labour market. But it also is then missing out on the positive effect of AI," she said.
When asked whether India will be able to take advantage of AI, Gopinath said the countries that have a high level of human capital, a higher scope for innovation, and good digital infrastructure along the “right kind of regulation” will be able to benefit from it.
"Among the top, you have the US, Singapore, Denmark, and Germany. India is about the average for emerging markets, kind of in the middle of the pack. But the countries that are going to benefit from it are the ones who are on the top end in terms of all of these indicators," she added.
IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva on Sunday said that AI will affect almost 40 percent of jobs around the world, replacing some and complementing others. She said that historically, automation and information technology have tended to affect routine tasks, but one of the things that sets AI apart is its ability to impact high-skilled jobs.
As a result, she added, advanced economies face greater risks from AI—but also more opportunities to leverage its benefits—compared with emerging market and developing economies.
In advanced economies, about 60 percent of jobs may be impacted by AI while this number will be 40 per cent in emerging markets and 26 per cent in low-income countries.