WEF Davos 2025: Crude oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $75 to $80 per barrel in 2025, Indian Oil Chairman A S Sahney said on Tuesday. He cited recent geopolitical developments as the driving factors behind the current volatility.
"Once it (crude price) goes beyond $80, it is at a very shaky and delicate level. This has been caused by recent incidents and geopolitical developments. That’s why it has gone beyond $80," Sahney said in an exclusive conversation with Business Today Editor Siddharth Zarabi at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos 2025.
"In my considered sense – we have a detailed analysis as this is bread and butter for us – the crude price range for this year will settle between $75 and $80 this year. In my personal analysis, it will be more towards $75 than $80. So, it will settle somewhere in that range," he said.
On the implications for consumers, the Indian Oil Chairman highlighted India's efforts to shield the public from global price shocks. "We have to have a very delicate balance. Our economy is one of the most robust ones which has maintained pump prices at very stable rates without hurting the consumer at all," he said.
Sahney said that the fluctuations in the crude prices had been enormous it hit $120 also, and also falling to $60 and $70. According to him, the policies taken by the government, along with the initiatives taken by oil marketing companies, helped the companies bear the burden during high prices when crude reached $100. During those times, he added, the OMCs suffered losses but managed to recover some when prices normalised.
The Chairman assured that oil marketing companies are closely monitoring consumer prices to minimise the impact of global fluctuations. "We are keeping a very close watch on consumer prices. We are not insulating ourselves from the consumer plight. At the same time, we have to be very aware of how the economy will respond to these fluctuations and they have to be insulated from these kinds of fluctuations," he added.
Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri recently provided a perspective on fuel price trends, indicating potential relief for consumers if crude prices stabilise. He said currently, international crude oil prices hover around $72-$73 per barrel. "If prices stay within this range or drop further, there's scope for reduction in retail prices," Puri said. However, he said, a rise to $80 per barrel would leave no room for relief.
India, which relies on imports for over 85% of its crude oil needs, has managed to keep petrol and diesel prices stable in recent years. Puri explained that the price of crude oil depends on several factors: the cost of a barrel internationally, insurance, freight charges, and the dollar exchange rate. While international crude prices have indeed fallen, he said, the dollar exchange rate and insurance and freight charges have risen.