WEF Davos 2025: Ian Bremmer, Founder and President of Eurasia Group, on Monday shared his thoughts on what a second Donald Trump presidency could mean for the US and the world. Bremmer pointed out that Trump's hardline stance on illegal immigration, a key focus of his 2024 campaign, would quickly turn into action.
"Trump won the election in large part on the issue of illegal immigrants. That was one of the top issues for many people. The Democrats really failed to address this issue. So he (Trump) feels very strongly about it. You are looking at 15 to 20 million illegal immigrants in the United States right now. I would not be surprised if 1 million of them are forcibly deported in the first year," he said in an exclusive conversation with Rahul Kanwal, Executive Director of Business Today.
When asked about the fate of deportees, Bremmer said the immigrants will have to go back. "Trump has already told the Mexicans, if you're not willing to take everybody, including some from countries that came through Mexico but aren't necessarily from Mexico...America can cause a lot of damage if you are the country they came from and you refuse to deal with that. So those numbers are going to be big," he added.
On illegal immigration, Bremmer sounded more positive about the H1B visa program, which allows skilled workers, many from India, to work in the US. He said Elon Musk and Ramaswamy very much support the H-1B visa and legal immigration, especially among more skilled workers. "But a lot of Deep Maga as opposed to Dark Maga...not the globalists but instead the populists that support Trump, they don't want immigration of any sort. Now if you ask me who's likely to win, usually Trump goes with the money and these are people that donated a lot to his campaign. Elon Musk is by far the most powerful advisor around Trump. So I don't expect that there are going to be big problems around H1B now."
However, Bremmer flagged the broader impact of Trump's "America First" stand. "A lot of Indians might look at anti-immigrant sentiment in the United States and say I don't feel very welcome in America. The Statue of Liberty today doesn’t reflect American values it did after World War I and II,” he said, adding that countries like Canada might attract more global talent. "The Statue of Liberty today doesn't reflect American values it did after World War I and II. So it wouldn't surprise me if a lot of talented Indians who can work anywhere in the world - they're coming from the best universities, they have incredibly fungible skills - maybe a lot more of them will go to Canada."
"Maybe a lot more of them will go other places. That's a concern because it's not just about setting legal policy for the United States, it's also about - are you welcoming to people from all over the world? America First doesn't sound very welcoming. A lot of women from India might say I'm not very interested in going to a country where they're actually taking back women's rights. A lot of gay people might say no I'm not so interested given what I hear from the US right now. The fact that the Americans don't really know what they stand for in terms of values right now will have a chilling effect on some legal immigration."