Covid-19 Impact: India's GDP for 2020-21 could slump to 2-3%

India's GDP for 2020-21 could slash to a 30-year low. India's GDP forecast for FY21 by rating agencies and global institutions is abysmally low.

S&P Global Ratings
GDP Forecast for FY21 - 3.5%

S&P Global Ratings further slashed its India growth forecast to 3.5 percent in 2020-21 from previous estimates of 5.20 %. saying "while lower official interest rates and government stimulus actions provide some relief, the slump in demand is likely to lead to declining credit quality and rising defaults, particularly among non financial corporates with weaker credit profiles".

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra)
GDP Forecast for FY 21 - 3.6%

India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra) has revised its FY21 gross domestic product (GDP) growth down to 3.6% from 5.5%. The key reasons are the spread of COVID-19. The revision is based on the assumption of lockdown continuing till end-April 2020 (full or partial) and gradual restoration of economic activities May 2020 onwards. In view of the lockdown, Ind-Ra has even revised the FY20 GDP forecast downward to 4.7%.

CRISIL
GDP Forecast for FY 21 - 3.5%
Earlier Estimates - 5.2%

The severe dent in the economic activity due to the coronavirus pandemic led rating agency Crisil to sharply cut its growth estimate for 2020-21 to 3.5 percent. Earlier, the agency had predicted an economic growth of 5.2 percent. Crisil slashes FY20 growth forecast to 5.1 per cent.

Moody's Investors Service
GDP Forecast for FY21 - 2.5%

Moody's Investors Service sharply cut India's growth forecast for calendar year 2020 to 2.5 percent from 5.3 percent estimate d earlier, as the coronavirus pandemic is expected to cause an unprecedented shock to the global economy.The ratings company estimates a 5% growth for calendar year 2019.

World Bank
GDP Forecast for FY21 - 5%

The World Bank has also cut its growth forecast to 5 percent from its earlier estimated 6 percent for the fiscal year 2020-21. It points at a "lingering credit weakness emerging from non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) as one of the key reasons for the downfall. It also estimated GDP growth of 5 % in FY 2020.

ICRA Limited (ICRA)
GDP Forecast for FY21 - 2%

Regardless of the measures announced  by the RBI, ICRA lowered the GDP growth to (-)4.5 per cent for Q1 FY2021 and to 2 percent for FY21. They said the estimate is guided by the rapidly growing uncertainties over the duration of the impact of coronavirus on economic activity in India and the rest of the world. ICRA revised GDP growth projection for FY20 to 4.7 percent.

Asian Development Bank (ADB)
GDP Forecast for FY21 - 4%
Earlier Estimates - 6%

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has projected India's growth to slow down to 4% in the current fiscal year. The bank expects the country's gross domestic product growth to strengthen to 6.2% in FY22, boosted by government reforms. ADB trims India's GDP growth forecast to 5.1% in FY20.