1st Monetary Policy After Budget 2024: RBI Keeps Repo Rate Unchanged At 6.5% For 9th Time In A Row

On Thursday, the RBI kept the Repo Rate unchanged by a 4:2 majority, maintaining the withdrawal of accommodation. "Inflation across the globe is receding grudgingly," stated Governor Shaktikanta Das. "Policies are showing signs of divergence across geographies. Many central banks are moving toward policy pivots, while some have tightened rates as well." Governor Das noted that CPI inflation for FY25 is projected at 4.5 percent. CPI inflation is pegged at 4.9 percent for Q1 FY25, 4.4 percent for Q2 FY25, 4.7 percent for Q3 FY25, and 4.3 percent for Q4 FY25. For 2025-26, CPI inflation is projected at 4.4 percent, with risks evenly balanced. In Q3, the substantial base effect may pull down overall inflation. The projected real GDP growth rate for 2024-25 is 7.2 percent. Governor Das had previously projected real GDP for 2024-25 at 7.2 percent in the first MPC announcements after the June 2024 Lok Sabha elections. RBI's projections for 2024-25 are 7.1 percent for Q1, 7.2 percent for Q2, 7.3 percent for Q3, and 7.2 percent for Q4, slightly altered from the previous projections of 7.3 percent, 7.2 percent, 7.3 percent, and 7.2 percent for the four quarters of the year. The Q1 projection has been moderated from the June projections due to updated information on certain high-frequency indicators, which show lower than anticipated corporate profitability, general government expenditure, and core industries output. "The risks are evenly balanced," said Governor Das, projecting real GDP growth for Q1 2025-26 at 7.2 percent. He also highlighted that the rapid growth in home equity loans, particularly those offered as top-ups on other collateralized loans such as gold loans, poses significant risks. Additionally, Governor Das announced that cheques will now be cleared in a few hours. The RBI has raised the tax payment limit through UPI from Rs 1 lakh to Rs 5 lakh. Watch Business Today TV Managing Editor Siddharth Zarabi in conversation with Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda and Rumki Majumdar, Economist, Deloitte India.