FY26 Market Outlook: Expert Analysis On Recovery, Trade War And Small & Mid Cap Opportunities

In this Daily Calls segment, G. Chokkalingam, Founder & MD of Equinomics Research, delivers a strong bullish outlook for the Indian stock market, particularly for FY26. He reinforces his earlier predictions of a March-end market bottom, citing fundamental and logical factors that have come to fruition. G. Chokkalingam asserts that the severe market downturn, which witnessed a ₹100 lakh crore market capitalization decline, is unlikely to repeat, barring a catastrophic monsoon failure. He highlights the stabilizing Indian rupee, anticipated improvements in GDP and H2 corporate earnings, and consistent retail investor inflows as key positive indicators. Despite the market's recent recovery of ₹30 lakh crore, G. Chokkalingam believes there's significant room for further growth. He also discusses the impact of the US-China trade war, emphasizing that the US cannot afford to be overly aggressive against India and China simultaneously, especially given India's relatively smaller trade deficit with the US.

G. Chokkalingam anticipates a robust market recovery from the first week of April, driven by year-end restructuring and portfolio rebalancing activities. He forecasts a strong six-month outlook, with small and mid-cap stocks leading the charge. He cautions, however, that while minor corrections are possible, a major market crisis is unlikely. Tune in for expert insights on the market's trajectory, potential investment opportunities in FY26, and the factors shaping India's economic landscape.