Nifty Back Above 24,000: Can The Rally Sustain?

The New Year rally on Dalal Street is in full swing! After closing the first trading day of 2025 on a high note, the markets continued their upward momentum in the second trading session of the year. On January 2nd, Thursday, both the Nifty and Sensex surged significantly, driven by broad-based buying across sectors. The Nifty ended the session at 24,188.65, up by 445.75 points (1.88%), while the Sensex closed at 79,943.71, gaining 1,436.30 points (1.83%). This rally marked a significant turnaround, a moment eagerly awaited by investors for the past three and a half months. Sectorally, all major indices, except Media, traded in the green. Nifty Auto led the rally with impressive gains of 3.8%, followed by Nifty IT, which rose by 2.3%, Nifty Consumer Durables with a 1.9% increase, and Private Bank up by 1.4%. The Media sector was the only laggard, trading flat with a slight negative bias of -0.06%. Among individual stocks, Eicher Motors stood out as the top gainer on the Nifty-50, closing with an exceptional 8% gain. Nilesh Jain, Vice President of Technical and Derivatives Research at Centrum Broking, highlighted several factors contributing to the rally. Technically, the Nifty has cleared its 200-day Moving Average and is attempting to surpass the 21-day Moving Average at 24,192. Nilesh Jain predicts that the index is now on track to reach 24,500 and possibly test 24,800 in the near term. A significant factor behind this surge is the unwinding of bearish positions, with substantial short covering observed in the market. Lower rollover data compared to the three-month average further supported this upward movement. Additionally, Nilesh Jain pointed out that optimism around a pre-budget rally has fuelled market sentiment, as investors anticipate favourable policies and announcements in the upcoming Union Budget. Cooling volatility in the market, indicated by a drop in the Volatility Index (VIX), has also created a stable environment for trading. Furthermore, expectations of strong Q3 earnings are adding to the positive outlook, as favourable numbers could sustain the ongoing rally. On stock-specific commentary, Nilesh Jain advised caution for investors looking to enter Eicher Motors, suggesting that fresh entries should be considered only after a correction, as the stock has already rallied significantly. Summarising the market's position, Nilesh Jain confidently stated, "It is time for our market to outperform."