Omicron-led third COVID wave in India to peak in Feb: IIT-Kanpur researchers

The third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic may peak in India by February 3, 2022, researchers at IIT Kanpur (IIT-K) have forecasted. 

The report published in the pre-print repository MedRxiv has predicted that following the trends around the world the third wave of the pandemic, which may be triggered by the new Omicron variant, "may start around mid-December and peak in the beginning of February." 

The team of IIT-K researchers used a statistical tool named the Gaussian Mixture model to forecast the third wave, IANS reported.

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The report used the data of the first and second COVID waves in India and the current increase in case tally, triggered by Omicron, in several nations, to predict a possible third wave in the country. 

The research team, drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT-K, noted that the study they undertook "suggests the cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of Covid-19. 

So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022". 

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Meanwhile, the members of the National COVID-19 Supermodel Committee also predicted the third wave in the country early next year. 

The panel's head Vidyasagar, who is also a professor at IIT Hyderabad, said India will have the third wave of Omicron but it will be milder than the second wave.