Govt plans to announce new base year for GDP in next few months

The base year for gross domestic product, or GDP, will be revised in few months to capture the changing economic scenarios in India and abroad. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) is working to introduce a new series of national accounts that requires changing the base year from 2011-12, a senior official said.

The ministry is waiting for Annual Survey of Industries and Consumer Expenditure Survey before finalising the new base year, MOSPI Secretary Pravin Srivastava said during a FICCI conference. Once the result is out, the proposal to change the base year will be placed before respective committees, he added.

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On a question about economic recovery, Srivastava said it is too early to comment as the situation will be clear after IIP, CPI and WPI data are released in the first fortnight of November.

GDP growth slowed down to a six-year low of 5 per cent in June quarter of this fiscal. Recently released data on eight core industries for September showed 5.2 per cent decline in production. These eight industries - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, cement, steel, electricity and fertilisers - contribute 40.27 per cent to the weight of items included in IIP.

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A day before, SBI Ecowrap report had warned that India's GDP growth is likely to slow further in the July-September quarter of this financial year to below 5 per cent amid decline in consumption, weak investments and an under-performing service sector. The last time GDP growth slipped below the 5 per cent-mark was in January-March quarter of 2012-13 when it had touched 4.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Bank of America-Merill Lynch had reduced India's GDP growth forecast by 0.30 per cent on the back of muted demand during festive season and "still-high real lending rates". Last month, Fitch Ratings had slashed India's GDP growth forecast in the current fiscal to 5.5 per cent saying a large credit squeeze emanating from shadow banks has pushed economic growth to a six year low.

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