IMF sees Indian economy growing 11.5% in 2021

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday revised upwards the growth forecast for Indian economy to 11.5 per cent in 2021, making it the only major economy expected to register a double-digit growth amidst the COVID-19 pandemic.

In its World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF revised higher the forecast for India's growth in 2021 by 2.7 percentage points,  "reflecting carryover from a stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased".

India is followed by China, Spain, and France which are expected to grow by 8.1 per cent, 5.9 per cent and 5.5 per cent, respectively, in 2021.

The IMF expects the Indian economy to have contracted by 8 per cent in 2020, leaving China to be the only major economy to have registered a positive growth during the year (2.3 per cent). While IMF has pegged India's growth at 6.8 per cent in 2022, the same for China is at 5.6 per cent.

The global economy, the IMF said, is projected to grow 5.5 per cent in 2021 and 4.2 per cent in 2022. "The 2021 forecast is revised up 0.3 percentage point relative to the previous forecast, reflecting expectations of a vaccine-powered strengthening of activity later in the year and additional policy support in a few large economies," it said.

However, it warned about surge in coronavirus infections, and said strong multilateral cooperation is required to bring the pandemic under control everywhere and ensure universal access to COVID-19 vaccines.

"Many countries, particularly low-income developing economies, entered the crisis with high debt that is set to rise further during the pandemic. The global community will need to continue working closely to ensure adequate access to international liquidity for these countries," the IMF said.

The global economy is estimated to have contracted by 3.5 per cent in 2020, it said.

Also read: Indian economy to contract 8% in FY21, growth seen at 9.6% in FY22: FICCI