Baharampur Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 LIVE: Cliffhanger! Neck-and-neck fight between Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, Yusuf Pathan

Baharampur Lok Sabha Election Results 2024: There is a neck-and-neck fight between the Congress' Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Trinamool Congress' Yusuf Pathan in West Bengal's Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency. At present, Yusuf Pathan is currently leading against Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, as per the Election Commission of India (ECI). 

The constituency went to polls on May 13 during the fourth phase of the Lok Sabha elections. Formerly Berhampore, the constituency was initially a bastion of Left parties. Since 1952, the constituency experienced a fluctuating contest between the Left and Congress parties, with recent trends showing an increasing preference for the Congress party.

Historically, the seat was predominantly controlled by the Left, especially the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). In 1984, Congress registered its first singular victory. However, a significant political shift occurred in 1999 when Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury of the Congress succeeded in securing the seat.

The Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency has seven Assembly segments – Burwan (SC), Kandi, Bharatpur, Rejinagar, Beldanga, Baharampur and Naoda.

This election, Chowdhury, the state Congress chief, is seeking re-election from the Baharampur seat. The ruling party in the state Trinamool Congress nominated former cricketer Yusuf Pathan, who played for Kolkata Knight Riders in the IPL, as their candidate from the constituency.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fielded well-known local doctor Nirmal Kumar Saha.

Chowdhury has been a prominent Congress leader at the state and national level. He secured victory for the Congress in three consecutive terms from 2009 to 2019.

Exit polls

India Today-My Axis exit poll predicted BJP will be getting 46% vote share, an increase of 6% from 2019. TMC is predicted to get 40% vote share. This gets translated to 26 to 31 seats for the BJP in the state and 11 to 14 seats to the Mamata-led TMC. On June 1, 2024, News18 Poll Hub predicted BJP/NDA to win 21-24 out of 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Trinamool Congress may secure 18-21 seats. News 24-Today's Chanakya said BJP may win 24 seats in West Bengal. Trinamool Congress may win 17 seats, Congress one seat. Republic-PMARQ poll showed BJP leading with 22 seats, TMC with 20. No seats are projected for Congress, CPM, or other parties. 

According to the India Today-Axis My India exit poll, Yusuf Pathan holds a competitive advantage in West Bengal's Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency. The poll indicates that Pathan has strongly positioned himself as a formidable challenger to Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury, the incumbent Member of Parliament from the Congress who has represented this constituency since 2009.

Lok Sabha elections 2019, 2014, 2009

In the last three Lok Sabha elections—2019, 2014, and 2009—Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has consistently secured his seat with notable margins. In the 2019 election, he triumphed over Apurba Sarkar (David) of the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) by 80,696 votes. The 2014 election saw him defeating AITC's Indranil Sen with a margin of 156,567 votes. Additionally, in the 2009 election, he emerged victorious against Pramothes Mukherjee from the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP). Furthermore, beyond his success in Lok Sabha elections representing Baharampur, Chowdhury also achieved victory in all seven Assembly segments during the 2016 Assembly elections under the Berhampore Lok Sabha constituency.

Lok Sabha polls over the years

Baharampur has seen five Members of Parliament from two parties since the seat was first contested in 1952: Tridib Chaudhuri, Nani Bhattacharya, and Pramothes Mukherjee from the RSP, and Atish Chandra Sinha and Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury from the Congress.

Baharampur Lok Sabha Election: Voters at a glance

Murshidabad, located near Bangladesh, is a district where Muslims are the majority, comprising 63% of the population in the Baharampur constituency, while Hindus make up 37%.

Over the years, the victory margin for Chowdhury in Baharampur has exhibited a noticeable decline. In 2009, he secured a win by more than 180,000 votes with approximately 57% of the total vote share. By 2014, although his winning margin increased to over 300,000 votes, his percentage of the vote share slightly decreased to around 50%. However, this trend reversed significantly by 2019 when his winning margin diminished to roughly 80,000 votes and captured only about 45% of the total votes.

Earlier, Adhir Ranjan commanded both Hindu and Muslim vote banks in the constituency. The 2021 Assembly election changed the equations in the area. In the 2016 State election, the Congress party achieved a decisive victory by securing all seven Assembly segments within the Baharampur Lok Sabha constituency.  

The 2021 elections showed things were going tough for Congress and Adhir Ranjan. In 2021, BJP won one Assembly seat, while TMC secured six. TMC led by Mamata Banerjee won 50.1% votes, BJP 31.6%, and Congress 15.1%, a significant drop from 2016.