India to be $18-20 trillion economy by 2047: Economist Ajit Ranade at BT India@100 summit

Ajit Ranade, Vice-Chancellor, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economy, while speaking at Business Today India@100 Summit, said that he expects the economy to get six times bigger and is optimistic for an average of 7 per cent growth going forward. "I think India will be $18-20 trillion economy by 2047, six times bigger than what it is currently," Ranade stated.

Business Today India@100 Economy Summit witnessed the presence of stalwarts of industry, policy makers and experts. The panel discussion titled as Walking on Fire: shepherding the Indian economy through a battle-strewn world saw some eminent panelists such as Ranade, VC, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economy; Shamika Ravi, Director-Research, Brookings Institution; Ramesh Chand, Member, Niti Ayog; Dr R Gopalan, former Finance Secretary.

Speaking on the theme of evolution of Indian economy in last 40 years, Ranade said, "It is a miracle. We were extremely impoverished. We had extreme poverty. We had short life expectancy. But we have improved a lot on all these parameters."

Throwing light on the evolution of economy in last 40 years, Shamika Ravi, Director-Research, Brookings Institution, said, "We under the age of 50 ... want more ... we cannot take our eyes off growth ... Dil Chahta hai more."

Suggesting a way ahead, she said self-reliance is a key for the growth and highlighted that India has done a phenomenal job on the food security front. "But currently, energy security is the biggest strategic challenge, as consumption of energy is rising and 30 per cent of our need is fulfilled from imports," she added.

Member of Niti Aayog, Ramesh Chand highlighted that in last many years per capita production of food has doubled. Flagging employment generation as a key concern for achieving growth, Chand said, "There is a challenge of employment and climate change. I must say Industry 4.0 and Industry 5.0 are not going to generate jobs. He said agriculture isn't a part of problem as far as climate change is concerned, but it can become a part of solution too."

R Gopalan, former Finance Secretary, assessing the economic freedom the country has achieved in last 40 years, said, "As far as economic freedom is concerned, we still have a long way to go, from 1991 we have taken baby steps."

Gopalan highlighted defence, economy, and innovation as the areas on which the government should focus on. "We should systematically lay out roadmap for next 25-years," Gopalan added.

Talking about the need for India to go for another devaluation of currency, Ranade said, "Devaluation is determined by the market and devaluation and depreciation of rupee should not be seen as a national prestige."

Sharing views on the unsustainable level of debts amongst state and particularly Punjab, Shamika Ravi said, "I put blame squarely on bad policy making. Punjab was one of the richest state before rapid deindustrialization and cross subsiding agriculture."

Throwing light on the ongoing debate between freebies and welfare states, Ravi said, "I think it's duty of the government to provide good freebies like education, health and clean air, we should have smart subsidies not rampant subsidies."

Ramesh Chand, addressing the same issue of subsidies and freebies said, "This debate is needed and we subsidise food not for 1/3rd people who fall below poverty line, in fact we offer it for 2/3rd people even above poverty line."

Talking about some steps and the areas which needs attention for the nation going forward, Shamika Ravi said, "Quality of education has to improve, as unskilled and unhealthy people can't let to the growth of country, so we need to focus on both education and health."

Gopalan, former finance secretary, highlighting the importance of labour force participation of women, said, "We should look at the roadmap for raising labour force participation of women from current rate of 21 per cent in India to 70 per cent in China."

Similarly, focusing on the importance of human capital, economist Ajit Ranade said, "Growth comes from human capital, so we need to focus on that."
 

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