'BJP would still have won...': CA debunks myth that Congress votes alone led to AAP's defeat in Delhi

Jitendra Jain, author and chartered accountant, has offered a nuanced take on the BJP’s sweeping victory in Delhi, challenging the popular narrative that Congress played a decisive role in the Aam Aadmi Party’s (AAP) defeat. According to Jain, attributing AAP’s loss entirely to Congress’s impact on vote share is an oversimplification of a more complex reality.

"In 34 constituencies, the BJP’s margin of victory exceeded the total votes garnered by the Congress," Jain noted. He further pointed out that in 20 of these 48 constituencies, the BJP’s margin was more than double the votes received by Congress. In 10 seats, the BJP’s winning margin was five to ten times greater than Congress’s vote count.

Jain acknowledged that there were 14 constituencies where the BJP’s victory margin was smaller than the total votes polled by Congress. These seats sparked the theory that Congress acted as a "spoiler" for AAP. However, Jain dismissed this assumption as flawed, arguing that not all Congress votes would have gone to AAP in a head-to-head contest.

"In 7 out of these 14 constituencies, the BJP’s margin of victory was between 50% and 100% of Congress’s vote count," Jain said. "Even if Congress had not contested as vigorously, some of those votes would have gone to the BJP, still ensuring a BJP win."

According to Jain, in 41 of the 48 constituencies, the BJP would have won regardless of Congress’s presence. It is only in the remaining 7 constituencies, where the BJP’s margin was narrower than the Congress vote count, that one could reasonably argue Congress influenced the outcome.

Jain said this scenario is reflective of a healthy democracy, where multiple political parties contest meaningfully and offer voters real choices. The 2025 Delhi Assembly election, he argued, exemplifies this competitive spirit. 

In constituencies like New Delhi, Jangpura, and Greater Kailash, where the BJP won with slim margins, Congress’s vote count exceeded the victory margin. However, Jain insists this does not guarantee that AAP would have benefited from a Congress absence, given the varied voter preferences.