'BJP's allies in real trouble in Bihar, Karnataka, Maharashtra': Ruchir Sharma decodes Lok Sabha Elections 2024

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: The Bharatiya Janata Party's allies in Bihar, Karnataka, and Maharashtra are doing poorly in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, ace investor Ruchir Sharma has told India Today. Sharma, who has been tracking Indian elections for over two decades, said seats in Maharashtra will be split 50-50 between the NDA and MVA, but the real loss will be in the BJP's allies - NCP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena.

"The general sense (during my travel) I picked up is that the seat split in the state will be 50/50 but the real loss will take place in the two BJP allies," the investor said when asked about the situation in Maharashtra, where voting for 48 seats concluded on May 20.    

"With the exception of Andhra Pradesh, the BJP's allies in particular are doing very poorly in Bihar, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. The allies seem to be in real trouble, with the exception of Andra Pradesh, where Chandrababu Naidu is on the ascendant," Sharma said while speaking at India Today Pop-Up Conclave in Mumbai. 

In a different podcast, Sharma said he travelled in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, and Maharashtra. In every state, he said, the narrative is very different in terms of what the concerns are or even who the leaders are.

"Andra Pradesh, for example, is really Jagan and Chandrababu Naidu - the national parties don't matter. Congress is completely irrelevant in Andhra Pradesh, the BJP is very small and is piggybacking on the back of Chandrababu Naidu and the film star Pawan Kalyan."

In Karnataka, he said, the Congress and the BJP are slugging it out. "The JDS seems to have got wiped out. So common theme we picked up even though every state is different is that in some of these states the BJP's, apart from Andhra Pradesh, allies aren't doing well. In Maharashtra, there's so much confusion that no one knows who's with whom...there is some sympathy for Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar." 

The saffron party has allied with Ajit Pawar's NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, Nitish Kumar's JDU and Chirag Paswan's LJP in Bihar, HD Kumaraswamy's JDS in Karnataka, and Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh. 

Pollsters are divided over Maharashtra as political alignment has changed following the split in two major regional forces - NCP and Shiv Sena. This will be the first election, where the loyalty of workers of these parties will be seen. Reports suggest that the NDA's tally may come down from 2019. 

In the 2019 elections, the BJP and the undivided Sena had bagged 41 of 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra. The BJP had won 23, while Sena bagged 18. This time, the BJP is contesting 28 seats, Eknath Shinde's Sena on 15, and NCP on 4.   

In Andhra, the BJP is contesting only on 6 of 25 seats, but any win for the TDP will boost the NDA's tally. Political strategist Prashant Kishor recently predicted that Jagan Mohan Reddy was heading for a massive defeat in the assembly elections. While Kishor did not predict any number of the Lok Sabha, RTV, a Telugu channel, projected 15 of 25 seats for the TDP and 8 seats for the ruling YSRCP.  

The BJP, according to reports, is staring at a certain loss in Karnataka. This time, the BJP is contesting 25 seats, while JDS is fighting on 3. Reports suggest that the saffron party's tally may come down to 15-18 from 25 in 2019.