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El Nino conditions may dissipate in June; India likely to witness 'beautiful monsoon', say experts

El Nino conditions may dissipate in June; India likely to witness 'beautiful monsoon', say experts

The El Nino conditions, which have been warming the equatorial Pacific Ocean, are predicted to weaken by June, raising hopes for a better monsoon season in India.

Business Today Desk
Business Today Desk
  • Updated Feb 12, 2024 10:20 AM IST
El Nino conditions may dissipate in June; India likely to witness 'beautiful monsoon', say expertsWeather scientists are closely tracking the developments, noting that if La Nina conditions set in by June-August, monsoon rains could be better than last year.

El Nino conditions, which brought a warm 2023, are expected to dissipate by June 2024, raising hopes for abundant monsoon rains, according to meteorologists. Two global climate agencies stated last week that El Nino is weakening and there is a chance for La Nina conditions to set in by August. Indian weather scientists believe that if La Nina conditions set in by June-August, monsoon rains could be improved compared to last year.

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However, they also warned about the 'spring predictability barrier', which makes weather forecasting challenging. Madhavan Rajeevan, ex-secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated there is a high probability of La Nina developing by June-July.

Even if El Nino transitions into ENSO-neutral conditions, the monsoon is expected to be better than last year. The southwest monsoon, accounting for approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall, is crucial for the agriculture sector, which contributes to about 14% of the GDP and employs over half of India's 1.4 billion population.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) confirmed El Nino is weakening. NOAA also stated there is a historical tendency for La Nina to follow strong El Nino events. The monsoon this year is expected to be better than last year, even if El Nino transitions into ENSO-neutral conditions.

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"Currently, we cannot say anything with certainty. Some models indicate La Nina, while some predict ENSO-neutral conditions. However, all models suggest an end to El Nino," Dr Sivananda Pai, India Meteorological Department (IMD) senior scientist was quoted as saying by news agency PTI. 

India received below-average rainfall of 820 mm in the 2023 monsoon season, compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm, due to a strengthening El Nino. If El Nino continues through the first half of 2024, 2024 would be warmer than 2023, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.

However, if La Nina develops, 2024 would not be warmer than 2023. Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, suggested that a quick transition to La Nina by June could result in a timely and abundant monsoon.

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However, high temperatures could lead to intense cyclones and extreme rains. "At the same time, if high temperatures continue, it would mean intense cyclones and extreme rains," Koll noted. 

Despite the transition, global temperature anomalies might continue. A La Nina might not have the same intensity as an El Nino, meaning the cooling-compensation effect could be subdued. In fact, recent years have seen warmer La Nina periods compared to past El Nino years.

(With agency inputs)

Also Read: Weather Update: IMD issues yellow alert for heavy rainfall in these states; check details here

Published on: Feb 12, 2024 10:13 AM IST
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