Ex-Army general warns: 'India at just 50–60% of needed capability, must buy fifth-gen jets, upgrade AMCA to sixth'

Former Indian Army commander Lt Gen HS Panag on Thursday called for a rethink in India's air power and deterrence strategies, warning that India cannot afford to fall behind China and Pakistan in fifth-generation fighter capabilities.

"India will have to give serious thought to acquiring a fifth-generation fighter and upgrading the AMCA to a sixth-generation fighter," Panag wrote in a detailed analysis in The Print. "China is already fielding two fifth-generation fighter jets, J-20 and J-35, and Pakistan may soon acquire 40 J-35s and possibly, also the Turkish KAAN."

"India's Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is still under development and unlikely to be inducted before 2035. Apart from the stealth features, the J-35's  PL17 air-to-air missile with a range of 400 km will out-range all other similar missiles." 

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh cleared the AMCA programme execution model on May 27, green‑lighting work on five prototypes. The first prototype rollout is expected by late 2028 or early 2029. AMCA is India's first indigenous fifth-generation stealth fighter jet. 

Panag cautioned that India's current military capability stands at "just 50–60 per cent of what is desirable" for credible deterrence against simultaneous threats from China and Pakistan. He argued that, unlike Israel, India lacks clarity in its political and military aims during conflict.

Referring to India's recent Operation Sindoor, Panag said: "The declared political aim had ambiguously focused on punishing the terrorists and their backers (implying Pakistan's military). Unfortunately, the military parroted the same. The more logical political aim should have been to force compellence on Pakistan, while the military aim should have focused on executing controlled, escalatory operations below the nuclear threshold to impose a psychological defeat on Pakistan."

He also flagged a key operational lapse during the strikes on May 6–7. "Lack of clarity in political and military aims led to the costly mistake of only focusing on terrorist hubs...without first or at least near simultaneously conducting counter-air operations, of which suppression of air defences is the sine qua non. The result was the loss of an unspecified number of fighter aircraft - allowing Pakistan to claim victory and parity in the conflict."

Panag pointed to Israel's real-time intelligence and drone warfare as benchmarks for India to emulate. "India requires a much deeper intelligence penetration of its adversary countries, as the Mossad has done in Iran. Imagine the impact of our air and drone strikes if we had eliminated the top rung of terrorist leadership in Pakistan."

On the technological front, Panag stressed the need to invest in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), long-range missiles, and advanced air defence networks. "The exploitation of UAS in Operation Sindoor was only 25–30 per cent of what will unfold in future operations," he said. "It is a cost-effective technology that must not be ignored and can offset investment in other costly weapon systems."

India, he added, must also prepare for electronic and cyber warfare. "No modern army can do without this force multiplier, which will be omnipresent in all facets of the battlefield."

Former IAF chief RKS Bhadauria, however, had a different view earlier this month, saying India should not import fifth-gen fighters even if Pakistan acquires J-20 or J-35 jets from China. "My answer is no," he said when asked whether India should buy fifth-gen fighter jets. "Now, the government has put their faith in AMCA, and now we need to do everything as a nation to expedite the AMCA.

He said let Pakistan get J-20 or J-35, "that will be studied. What is important is in the interim - how do you handle these threats and there are ways and means of tackling this threat that they will have."

Bhadauria argued that India should focus on developing countermeasures, saying, "We have already demonstrated our capabilities in the air defence zones... in air-to-ground precision zones in terms of standoff. So therefore we'll need to have an action plan to be able to sort this out and I think that's the way to go."

Moneycontrol recently reported that India is weighing a Russian offer to co-manufacture the SU-57 fighter jet as part of broader deliberations on bridging air power gaps. According to the report, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited's existing SU-30 production line in Nashik could support such a programme. The government is also exploring offers from Safran and Rolls-Royce for 100% technology transfer to develop indigenous fifth-generation engines.