Jammu and Kashmir Exit Polls: Region could see a hung assembly with Congress-NC having a big advantage

The exit polls for the troubled region of Jammu and Kashmir, which is witnessing elections after 10 whole years, is finally out and it looks like this time in Jammu, at least, it is big advantage BJP. As per C-Voter poll, broadcast by India Today, BJP is slated to get 41% of vote share, translating to at least 27-31 seats. Meanwhile, Congress-NCP is slated to get 36% votes, with seats ranging from 11-15. The exit poll shows that it is the PDP which is going to lose the most, with vote share coming down to 5%, translating to seats between 0-2.

The region, comprising of Jammu and the Kashmir valley has a total of 90 seats, out of which, after the abrogation of Article 370, the former now has 47 seats while the valley has 43 seats.

The real trouble for BJP, however, is in Kashmir valley, where its vote share has come crashing down to 3%, with Congress-NC going up 41%. 

Overall, in J&K, it is big advantage Congress-NC, with the survey showing the alliance can win between 40-48 seats, with the BJP coming second at 27-32 and the PDP at 6-12. A hung assembly, therefore, looks likely.

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, held after a decade, mark a pivotal moment in the region's political landscape. These elections are the first since the 2019 abrogation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status and bifurcated it into two Union Territories — Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh. The significance of this election extends far beyond political competition; it is seen as a crucial test of governance in the post-Article 370 era.

Key political players, including the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference (NC) and Congress, formed an alliance, while the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) contested independently, adding a competitive edge to the race.

Despite the region's complex political dynamics, voter turnout remained robust. Across three phases, an overall turnout of 63.45% was recorded, only slightly below 2014’s 65.8%. The final phase, held on October 1, saw the highest participation at 68.72%. Even in traditional boycott strongholds like Sopore and Baramulla, voter engagement reached its highest levels in 30 years.

While the region anticipates the election results, political rhetoric remains fierce. PDP leader Iltija Mufti has criticised the upcoming government, calling it a "toothless tiger" with no real power. In contrast, BJP's Ram Madhav, in an interview with India Today, dismissed speculation about alliances, reaffirming the BJP’s confidence in securing a majority on its own. Madhav also stressed the party’s commitment to restoring statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, echoing promises made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah.

The elections not only carry the weight of political contests but also represent the first step toward redefining governance in a region that has seen historic constitutional changes.