'Fascinating. Interesting times ahead.': Shashi Tharoor after Yogendra Yadav predicts BJP falling short in Lok Sabha Elections

Swaraj India chief Yogendra Yadav's revised projection for the 2024 Lok Sabha election, suggesting a significant dip for the BJP to around 250 seats, has sparked a lively exchange with Congress MP Shashi Tharoor.

Tharoor, aiming for a fourth term as MP from Thiruvananthapuram, highlighted Yadav's prediction of 260-270 seats for the BJP and its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies. This estimate suggests the BJP may fall short of the required majority of 272 seats, far below its target of winning over 400 seats.

"Fascinating... Yogendra Yadav has revised his earlier estimates and now says the BJP will definitely fall short of 272. He tells Karan Thapar the BJP could go down to 250 but, if the undercurrent is strong (referring to anti-incumbency) it could even fall to 230," Mr Tharoor posted on X (formerly Twitter).

"Yadav says he expects the rest of the NDA to win 35 to 40 seats. This means if the BJP were to fall as low as 230 it will not be able, even with support of the NDA, to reach the majority mark."

"Interesting times ahead" Tharoor declared.

Yadav clarified his position through a response on X, stating he has consistently predicted the BJP will struggle to cross 272 seats without outside support. He reiterated that the BJP might win around 250 seats, potentially falling below 230. He also mentioned that half of the NDA's seats might come from parties like TDP, who do not have a long-term commitment to the BJP beyond this election.

Yadav outlined two scenarios in an interview. In the first and more probable scenario, he predicted the BJP might lose around 50 seats compared to 2019, where it secured 303 seats, thus winning around 250 seats in 2024. In a less likely scenario, if an anti-incumbency undercurrent is strong, the BJP's tally could drop further.

Regarding the Congress, Yadav projected that the party could reach triple digits, potentially securing 90-100 seats, compared to 52 in 2019 and 44 in 2014. He suggested the Congress could win up to 120 seats.

For the INDIA bloc, Yadav predicted a slight decline, estimating 35-45 seats, down from around 50 in the previous election.

Earlier today, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge expressed hope for the party to win 128 seats.