From bastion to battleground: BJP's hold on North Maharashtra faces turbulence

North Maharashtra, an agrarian region with 47 assembly seats, has been a BJP bastion for years. But as the assembly elections approach, the saffron party faces dual challenges — caste tensions, and farmer unrest. With five districts — Dhule, Nandurbar, Jalgaon, Nashik, and Ahilyanagar (formerly Malegaon) — the region will play a crucial role in determining the BJP's ability to retain power.  

In the 2019 elections, the BJP had secured 16 seats, leading the tally in the region, while the undivided NCP won 13, Congress took seven, Shiv Sena six, and AIMIM and independents won two each. However, much has changed since then. The Shiv Sena split in June 2022, and the NCP fractured in July 2023, significantly altering the political equations in Maharashtra. Now, both Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP are in alliance with the BJP.

Cracks in the BJP's Armour  

The Lok Sabha elections earlier this year were a wake-up call for the BJP. Of the 12 parliamentary seats in North Maharashtra, the BJP lost four — Dhule, Dindori, Nandurbar, and Ahilyanagar — to the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP), and Congress. The BJP held on to only Jalgaon and Raver.

In North Maharashtra, farmers' issues and the polarisation between Marathas and OBCs over reservations are key talking points. "There is tremendous unrest against the government," Eknath Khadse, a former BJP heavyweight from Jalgaon who joined Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP) in 2020, told news agency PTI. "But the BJP's organisational strength still gives it an edge."  

Congress Struggles to Hold Ground  

The Congress party, once dominant in the region, continues to struggle in areas like Nashik, where it has failed to regain its footing since Sharad Pawar’s departure in 1999. "We never got any seat to contest in Nashik after Pawar’s exit," said senior Congress leader Rajaram Pangavhane. "This time, the contest will largely be between Sena (UBT)-NCP(SP) and the BJP. Congress will focus on Nandurbar, Dhule, and Ahilyanagar." He highlights inflation, corruption, and the Maratha-OBC confrontation as key issues shaping the campaign.  

Congress has also been weakened by defections. Prominent leaders like Kashiram Pawara, a sitting MLA from Shirpur, switched to the BJP last year and won his seat again. Amrish Patel, another Congress stalwart, also joined the BJP. Meanwhile, Manikrao Gavit’s son, Bharat Gavit, left Congress to join NCP (SP) and is contesting from Navapur in Nandurbar.  

Not all is lost for Congress, though. Kunal Patil, a two-time MLA from Dhule Rural and the son of Congress veteran Rohidas Patil, played a crucial role in Shobha Bacchav's victory from Dhule in the recent Lok Sabha polls, defeating Subhash Bhamre of the BJP.  

Farmers' Concerns Remain Front and Center  

Agriculture remains the backbone of North Maharashtra, with farmers growing cotton, soybeans, and onions. Farmers' distress had made headlines during the Lok Sabha elections. According to Bharat Dighole, founder-president of the Maharashtra State Onion Producers' Association, onion farmers have started receiving better prices for their produce. 

"A subsidy of Rs 851.66 crore was disbursed to those who sold onions at low rates in February-March 2023," Dighole explains. However, Rs 25 crore of the promised subsidy is still pending. "The financial aid was provided in phases, and crop insurance payouts, milk subsidies, and Rs 5,000 per hectare for crop losses have been given. But soybean prices remain below the minimum support price (MSP), frustrating farmers," he adds.  

Though the ban on onion exports was lifted in May, farmers still demand a complete waiver of export duties. "The government reduced export duty from 40% to 20%, but farmers feel it’s not enough," Dighole said while speaking to the news agency.  

The onion belt in Maharashtra extends across 50 assembly constituencies, including those in Nashik, Dhule, Jalgaon, and Ahilyanagar. Maharashtra accounts for 40% of the country's total onion production, making the region a critical area for both economic and political activity. This region also includes 11 assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) and four for Scheduled Castes (SC).  

The BJP has benefited from gaining the support of key local leaders from Congress, such as Kashiram Pawara and Amrish Patel, weakening the opposition's position in these reserved constituencies. However, Eknath Khadse warns that despite the BJP’s gains, unrest among farmers and dissatisfaction with government policies could complicate the election outcome. "The BJP still has an edge thanks to its organisation," Khadse admitted, "but the situation on the ground remains volatile."