Haryana Assembly Election Results 2024: Does the buck stop with Bhupinder Singh Hooda for Congress' shocking defeat?

The Congress party’s dismal performance in the Haryana Assembly elections, a state which was supposed to be the party's for the picking, has been attributed to its over-dependence on the Jat community and its trust in former Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. With a state as demographically diverse as Haryana, banking primarily on one community, experts say, led to the alienation of key voter blocs, particularly Dalits and non-Jats, both of which the party failed to mobilise effectively.

The Hooda Factor

Bhupinder Singh Hooda, Congress’s face in Haryana, not only played a dominant role in shaping the party’s electoral strategy, but he also single-handedly managed the entire campaign for the state, including ticket distribution. While his influence over the Jat community is undeniable, the party's heavy reliance on him backfired in multiple ways. The Congress fielded 28 Jat candidates, hoping to consolidate the community’s vote. However, by focusing predominantly on the Jats, Congress lost the support of non-Jats, Dalits, and other communities that had started leaning towards the party, largely due to its push for social justice under Dalit leader Kumari Selja.

The fissures within the party were evident, as Kumari Selja, a significant figure among Dalit voters, was sidelined in ticket allocation. Out of 70 candidates endorsed by Hooda, only nine were from Selja’s camp. This internal strife not only weakened the party’s coherence but also alienated a sizable portion of the Dalit electorate, which had the potential to tip the scales in Congress’s favour.

Misplaced Strategy: Ignoring Non-Jat and Dalit Voters

The Congress’s reliance on Jat votes also meant a gross oversight of the state’s complex demography. While Jats constitute 26-28% of Haryana’s population, non-Jat communities and Dalits collectively form a much larger voter base. Particularly telling was Congress’s lack of focus on the 17 Scheduled Caste-reserved seats, where winning could have dramatically improved the party's chances of forming a majority.

In contrast, the BJP, under Chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC leader, strategically wooed the non-Jat communities. The BJP’s ability to consolidate OBC, Brahmin, and Dalit voters allowed it to dominate regions like Ahirwal, traditionally a BJP stronghold. Here, the Congress’s neglect was stark, as the BJP took 20 of the 28 seats in this region, further compounding the Congress’s woes.

Dalit Division: A Missed Opportunity

One of the biggest challenges for Congress was the fractured Dalit vote. The BJP, sensing an opportunity, actively worked to unite non-Jat voters, while alliances formed by the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) and the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) with Dalit-focused political parties further fragmented the Dalit electorate. As a result, the Dalit vote, which could have played a pivotal role in propelling Congress to victory, ended up divided among multiple parties, with the BJP reaping the benefits.

Congress’s internal strife and lack of attention to the Dalit community ultimately led to Kumari Selja staying away from key campaigning events. Her absence, especially in regions with a high Dalit population, was a glaring misstep, weakening Congress’s chances in these constituencies.

Bhupinder Hooda vs Kumari Selja: A Divide Too Wide

The infighting between Bhupinder Hooda and Kumari Selja also presented an image of a divided Congress, something the BJP was quick to exploit. The parallel campaigns run by the Hooda and anti-Hooda factions, with Selja and other leaders like Randeep Surjewala heading separate efforts, only deepened the fractures within the party. This division provided the ruling BJP with ammunition, as leaders like Union Minister Manohar Lal Khattar and BJP IT cell head Amit Malviya publicly mocked the Congress for its internal discord.

The BJP capitalised on this divide, with Khattar even inviting Selja to join the saffron party. The split between Hooda and Selja supporters became a microcosm of Congress’s broader failure in forging unity, resulting in a half-hearted campaign that failed to resonate with voters beyond the Jat community.

Should the Buck Stop at Hooda?

The question of whether Bhupinder Hooda bears the primary responsibility for Congress’s defeat in Haryana is complex. While his dominance in decision-making led to the party’s overreliance on Jat voters, it would be unfair to place the entire blame on his shoulders. The Congress high command’s inability to manage internal differences and offer a more inclusive platform also played a significant role in its downfall.

Ultimately, Congress’s failure in Haryana highlights the risks of over-relying on a single leader and community in a state as diverse as Haryana. For the party to regain relevance, it must broaden its appeal, mend internal rifts, and focus on building a coalition of voters beyond the traditional Jat base. Without addressing these issues, the road ahead for Congress in Haryana remains fraught with challenges.