Haryana assembly elections 2024: Can AAP's solo gamble disrupt Congress' game plan?

Before the Haryana assembly elections, attempts to bring the Congress and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) together backfired because they could not agree on seat-sharing plans. The AAP wanted a large number of seats, including the crucial ones that the Congress was hesitant to give up, thus the seat-sharing negotiations didn't proceed as expected.

The Congress, which is upbeat due to its performance in the recent Lok Sabha polls, sidelined the AAP on the basis of the latter's performance in the 2019 state elections. In 2019, the AAP lost all the 46 seats it contested on and received a vote share of less than NOTA.

Even though the AAP could not win from the Kurukshetra seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party's boosted morale comes from its performance in 4 assembly constituencies -- Kalayat, Pehowa, Guhla, and Shahabad. Due to this, the party demanded 9-10 assembly segments during alliance with the Congress. 

Since the talks for an alliance between the two parties began, AAP Haryana state president Sushil Gupta advocated for the party fielding its candidates on all the 90 seats rather than entering into an alliance with the Congress. But Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi pressed for an alliance between the two parties, citing the larger INDIA bloc unity. 

Here's why AAP's muscle-flexing could become Congress' headache

This, however, could be a cause of concern for the Congress as political observers and leaders within the grand old party believe that the AAP will not only divide the anti-BJP votes but also Congress' core votes.

Apart from the splitting of anti-BJP votes and Congress' core votes, Arvind Kejriwal's release from jail is also bothering the grand old party. Senior Congress leader Sandeep Dikshit said that AAP only contests elections where Congress is either in a stronger position or in power. 

Moreover, AAP leader Raghav Chadha warned the Congress and the BJP to not underestimate the Aam Aadmi Party. 

"The past 6 months have been very tough for the people of New Delhi and for AAP. Arvind Kejriwal will lead the election campaign in Haryana, where people are seeking an alternative as they are tired of conventional political parties," Chadha said. 

After his resignation on Tuesday, Kejriwal is expected to focus more on Haryana, especially after an abysmal performance in the Lok Sabha polls. 

'Haryana ka beta': AAP, Arvind Kejriwal's emotional appeal to voters

The AAP supremo's release from jail could shift the dynamics of the Haryana elections as Kejriwal and other leaders of the party are making emotional appeals to the voters of Haryana.

Arvind Kejriwal often introduces himself as 'Haryana ka beta', due to his connection to the Sivani village in Bhiwani district. During the rallies, she kept invoking her husband's roots in the state while trying to convince the voters that he is 'Haryana ka beta'. Kejriwal, his wife Sunita and other prominent leaders are also conducting door-to-door campaigns.

Assembly segments where AAP could hit Congress

The AAP could affect the Congress in 9 Haryana districts spread across 34 assembly segments. These districts are located on the borders of Delhi and Punjab. Sonipat and Gurugram are on the Delhi side whereas Ambala, Panchkula, Jind, Kurukshetra, Fatehabad, Kaithal, and Sirsa are on the Punjab border. These 7 districts also have the second largest Sikh population. 

AAP's Achilles heel in Haryana

Even though the AAP seems convinced of its emotional card, senior Congress leader Birender Singh Chaudhary said that the party lacks any solid base in Haryana and the emotional appeal will not work. 

"They tried this strategy in Delhi but lost all Lok Sabha seats," Chaudhary said. The party lacks a robust organisation in the state compared to Delhi and Punjab. AAP has limited prominent figures in the state to bank on -- Arvind Kejriwal, Anurag Dhanda and state president Sushil Kumar Gupta. 

Moreover, the AAP's image of a 'Kattar Imandar' party and its brand being that of a party with a difference has suffered immensely due to several corruption cases against top leaders like Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Satyendra Jain.