IMD heat warning 'March to be unusually hot this year': Temperatures to rise up to 40°C!

India is set to experience one of the warmest March months on record, with above-average temperatures throughout the month posing a serious threat to wheat yields, two weather bureau officials said.

The world's second-largest wheat producer is relying on a strong 2025 harvest to avoid expensive imports after three consecutive years of poor crop yields. However, rising temperatures could once again reduce output, potentially forcing the government to reconsider its 40% wheat import tax.

"March is going to be unusually hot this year. Both the maximum and minimum temperatures will remain above normal for most of the month," said a senior official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), speaking on condition of anonymity. The IMD is set to release its official March forecast on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to climb from the second week of March, with maximum temperatures potentially exceeding 40°C (104°F) in many states by the end of the month, the official said. Wheat-growing regions in central and northern India could see temperatures rise up to 6°C above normal, according to another IMD source.

"March is not going to be conducive for wheat, chickpea, and rapeseed. Crops could experience heat stress," the second official warned.

Winter crops such as wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas require cooler temperatures for optimal growth. A similar spike in temperatures in February and March 2022 damaged wheat yields, leading India to ban exports of the staple.

Wheat prices have already surged to record highs this month due to dwindling supplies, raising concerns that another weak harvest could further strain food security and trigger policy shifts to boost domestic availability.