India likely to see above-normal monsoon in 2024, says Met Department

India is likely to see above-normal monsoon with a cumulative rainfall estimated at 106 per cent from June to September this year of long-period average of 87 cm, according to the Meteorological Department (IMD). The Ministry of Earth Sciences said that El Nino conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region at present. 

The weather department also said that La Nina conditions, usually associated with good monsoon in India, are likely to set in by August-September. Above-normal rainfall is likely to take place in most parts of the country barring some regions of northwest, east and northeastern states. 

"The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Nino condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season and La Nina conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season," the Ministry of Earth Sciences release read.

It also mentioned that the snow cover extent during January to March was below normal. It also mentioned that the weather department will issue updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May. Meanwhile, India has experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed El Nino event, IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said. 

Moreover, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said that India is expected to report a 'normal' monsoon in June-September this year. The private weather forecasting agency said monsoon rains in India are expected to be 102 per cent of the long-period average of 868.8 m for the four-month period. 

As per this forecast, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will receive adequate rainfall. States such as Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and West Bengal are likely to receive lower rainfall during peak monsoon months of July-August. As per Skymet: "Northeast India is likely to observe less than normal rains during the first half of the season."

Skymet Managing Director Jatin Singh said: “El Nino is rapidly turning into La Nina. The monsoon circulation becomes stronger during La Niña years. Moreover, the transition of Super El Nino to strong La Nina has historically produced a good monsoon. However, the monsoon season may begin with a risk of damage due to the residual effects of El Nino. The second half of the monsoon season will see a huge surge compared to the initial phase." 

The southwest monsoon delivers about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, which is critical for the agriculture sector. Agriculture accounts for about 14 percent of the country's GDP.