India vs China: Who is driving the next global coal expansion?

India and China are emerging as the two biggest drivers of the world’s proposed coal mine expansion, even as global coal demand growth slows and coal-fired power generation declines. China leads with 1,321 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of proposed capacity, while India’s pipeline has surged to 638 Mtpa, according to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Mine Tracker (GCMT) Briefing 2026.

China remains the world’s biggest coal pipeline

China continues to dominate planned global coal mine development, with 1,321 Mtpa of proposed capacity in 2025. This is more than half of the global pipeline and exceeds the proposed capacity of all other countries combined, according to the report.

India, however, recorded the sharpest increase. Its proposed coal mining capacity nearly doubled from 329 Mtpa in 2024 to 638 Mtpa in 2025, accounting for nearly all of the annual increase in the global pipeline. China’s proposed capacity, in contrast, remained relatively flat during the year.

The increase in India’s pipeline was largely linked to Jharkhand and Odisha, the country’s leading coal-producing states, where proposed mine projects doubled. The report also noted that India’s Ministry of Coal had set an ambitious target of nearly 1.15 billion tonnes of raw coal production for FY2025-26, citing growing energy requirements from heatwaves, economic growth and energy-security concerns. More than 20 new coal mines, with aggregate capacity of over 80 Mtpa, were planned to be operationalised.

Five countries account for 92% of proposed capacity

Coal mine development has become increasingly concentrated geographically. China, India, Australia, Russia and South Africa together account for nearly 92% of the world’s proposed coal mining capacity, equivalent to about 2,314 Mtpa out of the global 2,521 Mtpa pipeline. Their combined share has increased from 89% in 2024.

The concentration comes despite signs that the broader global coal market is losing momentum. Coal demand grew by less than 0.5% in 2025 and is expected to plateau through 2030, according to the International Energy Agency. At the same time, coal-fired electricity generation declined 0.6% in 2025, while wind and solar power together overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time.

China, India, Australia, Russia and South Africa together account for 2,314 Mtpa of the 2,521 Mtpa global proposed coal mining pipeline, according to Global Energy Monitor’s Global Coal Mine Tracker Briefing 2026. Their combined share rose from 89% in 2024 to nearly 92% in 2025.

New coal capacity hits decade low

The disconnect is also visible in actual mine development. Only around 113 Mtpa of new coal mining capacity entered operation in 2025, nearly 40% lower than the 185 Mtpa added in 2024. This marked a new decade low for coal mine commissioning.

At the same time, the proposed global coal mine pipeline expanded nearly 11% to 2,521 Mtpa across 834 projects. The report said the gap between slowing demand and expanding project pipelines raises concerns about future project economics and the possibility of stranded assets.

The report also found that around three-quarters of proposed capacity consists of greenfield mines, rather than expansions of existing operations. India is among the countries where greenfield projects account for more than three-quarters of proposed capacity, at around 80%.

The findings highlight a widening divide between global coal demand trends and planned supply, with India and China likely to remain central to the trajectory of the coal industry over the coming decade.