India’s fertility rate dropped from 6.2 in 1950 to under 2 in 2021; to dip to 1.29 in 2050: Lancet

India’s fertility rate has dropped from nearly 6.2 in 1950 to just under 2 in 2021. It is projected to dip further to 1.29 in 2050 and 1.04 in 2100, as per a new global research published in The Lancet journal. 

The journal stated that these numbers are in line with global trends where the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) saw a decline too. The TFR was over 4.8 children per woman in 1950 and fell to 2.2 children per woman in 2021. In 2050, the fertility rate is expected to fall to 1.8 and further to 1.6 in 2100 globally. 

In India there were more than 1.6 crore livebirths in 1950 and over 2.2 crore in 2021. The number is projected to fall to 1.3 crore in 2050. The Lancet journal stated that there were 12.9 crore livebirths all over the world in 2021, an increase from roughly 9.3 crore in 1950, but a decline from the peak of 14.2 crore in 2016. 

Researchers from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators have warned of a demographically divided world in the 21st century due to high fertility rates in low-income countries. These high rates are particularly prevalent in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. 

The researchers predict that the share of global livebirths in low-income countries will nearly double from 18 per cent in 2021 to 35 per cent by 2100. They also warned that climate change could exacerbate the situation in these high-fertility low-income countries, leading to more frequent floods, droughts, and extreme heat. These changes could threaten food, water, and resource security, and significantly increase the risk of heat-related illnesses and death.

As the world's population ages, recent research findings on fertility could have significant impacts on various sectors, including economies, geopolitics, food security, health, and the environment, the journal stated. Researchers mention a 'clear demographic divide' between the effects felt by middle-to-high-income regions versus low-income regions. They warn that unless governments find innovative solutions or funds to address the issues posed by an ageing population, the strain on national health insurance, social security programmes, and health-care infrastructure will increase, the report highlighted. 

While a sustained decrease in global population could lead to environmental progress by reducing the pressure on resources and carbon emissions, researchers caution that increased per capita consumption due to economic development might negate these benefits. To prevent a high concentration of live births in high-fertility, low-income regions, the researchers recommend improving women's access to education and contraceptives, which they identify as the two primary factors influencing fertility rates. Despite the overall global decline in fertility, the researchers predict 'considerably steeper fertility declines' in sub-Saharan Africa in the coming decades due to the rapid expansion of education and contraceptive access.